1) Oscar 2011 - Best Picture
Best Picture is set to be the most competitive category at this year's Academy Awards, as there are many heavyweights among the movies nominated. The Social Network, a biopic of Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg, won Best Motion Picture at the 68th Golden Globe. The King's Speech won Best Picture at the 2011 Screen Actors Guild Awards, in addition to winning seven British Academy Film honors. The British historical drama about King George VI also leads all movies with 12 Oscar nominations.
The two movies are likely to face a stiff challenge from Black Swan, a Darren Aronofsky's thriller that has garnered universal acclaim. As film critics seem to really like this movie, one should not be surprised if Black Swan pulls an upset in this category. Rounding the list of the top contenders are blockbuster hits, Inception and Toy Story 3. In a year full of great movies, one of them could benefit from the split-vote effect and win Best Picture.
Prediction: With major pre-Oscar awards divided among the top 5 movies, there is no clear favorite for Best Picture. However, recent "Facebook" revolutions in the Middle East may have helped The Social Network separating itself from the other top contenders.
2) Oscar 2011 - Best Director
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This year's Best Director award is a three-man race between David Fincher, Tom Hooper, and Darren Aronofsky. This is because their movies are the top contenders for the Best Picture crown. As the director of the year's Best Picture film has won Best Director's honor six of the last seven years, David Fincher (whose movie is my pick for Best Picture) is the clear frontrunner for this award. There is a slight chance, however, that Oscar voters will give the award to their (close) second choice for Best Picture as a consolation prize. With all three movies being so outstanding, this probability does exist.
Prediction: David Fincher snatches Best Director to go along with Best Picture for The Social Network.
3) Oscar 2011 - Best Actor & Best Actress
Actors and actresses from movies that win Best Picture rarely triumph in these two categories. This is because the spotlight is often on the directors of these movies and not the artists who take part in them. Thus, it is unlikely that any of the actors from The Social Network (which I have predicted to win Best Picture) will win either of these awards. Rather, Best Actor and Best Actress awards are likely to be split between The King's Speech and Black Swan. Fortunately, these two movies feature many exceptional performances. Any of the main actors or actresses is fully deserving of this award.
Prediction: Colin Firth (from The King's Speech) and Natalie Portman (from Black Swan) win Best Actor and Best Actress.
The 2011 Oscar will take place Sunday, February 27 (8 PM EST or 5 PM PST) at Kodak Theater in Hollywood, California. ABC will air this annual event live.
Published by Simon Nguyen
Simon Nguyen is a researcher who holds a Master's degree in economics. His areas of expertise are public policy, labor and sport. View profile
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