Oscar Picks '010

For the last five years I have made Oscar predictions, even though I have not even seen all the nominated films. And sometimes that makes some selections difficult, because I have to rely on hearsay and not my own opinion. I have heard nothing but incredible parise for Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart, but I have not seen it, nor will I have the opportunity before Sunday. So what follows is a list of predictions - some of them mere educated guesses.

Also, I'm not going to do the "Should win," "Will win," "Upset" cheating thing. I'm picking one and sticking to it - hoping that, worst case scenario, I can plead ignorance. I will not argue the merits of a competing movie in my selection. If I were giving out the awards, this is how I would do it. You'll also notice that I have a lot to say about the talent behind the films and less to say about the faces in them. That's how I roll.

Best Picture - Avatar

I was a doubter of Avatar for a very long time. Even after it came out and I had heaps of praise shoved in my face. But I did finally see it and... damn it.

For years, I harbored a grudge against Annie Hall for beating Star Wars for Best Picture in 1977. I love Woody Allen, but I could not believe that the Academy did not recognize the fact that Star Wars set a new bar for film entertainment... worldwide! I've seen Annie Hall three times. I couldn't tell you how many times I've seen Star Wars.

Applying the same logic, Avatar is clearly deserving of the award this year. The performance capture technology used in the film (High fidelity facial motion capture) is the next revolution in both live-action and animation. It's already being used in dozens of projects under development. Not to mention, the movie has made 2.5 BILLION DOLLARS. The impact of the film is quite simply a literal phenomenon.

Best Animated Picture - Up

My love for Pixar is no secret, especially when no Miyazaki film has been nominated. And while I'm glad Up was nominated for Best Picture, I don't think that was absolutely necessary. This is the most realistic (for lack of a better word) film the company has made, and it hurts my heart every time I think about it. This is as sure of a lock as Finding Nemo was.

Best Director- Quentin Tarantino

If I could give a Quentin Tarantino an award every year for being Quentin Tarantino, I would do it. The man breathes film. And after the disappointing business that Kill Bill and Grindhouse did, it was refreshing to see everyone excited about a Tarantino flick for the first time since the 90s. Hell, my parents went to see it before I did! It's his most financially successful film, domestic and foreign.

Tarantino is a fantastic writer, but he's a director's director. He handles the camera himself quite frequently and he knows all the technical ins and outs of the process, from the time it began until present. He is an encyclopedia of cinematic information and it makes people who love movies love him. He was nominated for Pulp Fiction, but he should win for Inglourious Basterds.

Best Original Screenplay - Mark Boal

The Hurt Locker was a total surprise to me. I like small-scale war films like Jarhead and Three Kings, where the story is about a group of soldiers, not an entire war. Every part of Mark Boal's script oozes with suspense and some people probably would have killed to have the role of his fantastic lead character. Jeremy Renner did the part justice and deserved the nomination.

The film is about the current conflict in Iraq, but there's no reason it has to be. It's a film about every man who has ever put on a uniform and called himself a soldier.

Best Adapted Screenplay - Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner

Reitman adapted his first feature, Thank You For Smoking, himself. It was uproariously funny and I liked his directing style, which reminded me a little of Wes Anderson. Without all the Bowie.

He directed Diablo Cody's script for Juno, which was an Original Screenplay winner. Based on the book but also taking many liberties, Reitman's script for Up in the Air is like an Arthur Miller play. It can be taken totally at face value as a way of capturing the attitute of the time. Or it can be a workprint for fundamental, timeless problems inherent to mankind: seeking the unobtainable, craving another life, and knowing that hindsight is always a son of a bitch.

Best Actor - Jeff Bridges

Because it's a lock, apparently.

Best Actress - Gabourey Sidibe

I'm pretty sure this will happen.

Best Supporting Actor - Christoph Waltz

Playing someone evil is a good way to get a nomination in this category. Playing an evil genius is a great way to win. Ask Anthony Hopkins.

There is a poetry and rhythm to Tarantino's writing which requires a certain kind of diction to do justice. Uma Thurman and Sam Jackson can do it. And now we know that Christoph Waltz can, too. In three languages.

Best Supporting Actress - Vera Farmiga

At the risk of giving too much of the movie away, I'll simply say that she's fantastic, and you should probably just see it. Like... yesterday.

Best Cinematography - Barry Ackroyd

I felt like I need to wash the sand off of me after I finished Hurt Locker. Effective shooting, and some of the best uses of high speed camera that I've ever seen. The opening scene haunts me.

Best Editing - Sally Menke

Hi Sally!

Again, nominated for Fiction, should win for Basterds.