Over/Under: Joshua Huffman's Week 1 NFL Totals Predictions

Week 1 of the 2010 NFL Season is approaching and football fans are preparing to win their office pools. What can fans expect early into the season and how should they based their predictions on over/under odds?

I regularly do straight picks and predictions against the spread, but wanted to try something else. I will do these every week along with my other series of prediction and sports articles. You can find them at the end of this article.

UPDATE 9-8-10: Updated with the most recent total spreads and the 2 MNF games. Good luck this week!

Week 1 NFL Totals Predictions: Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (48.5)
The New Orleans Saints have one of the league's most prolific offenses. It's even more prolific on turf. The Minnesota Vikings had one of the most potent offenses in the NFL last season, but they could struggle as Brett Favre gets into a rhythm with a depleted receiving core.

The Saints defense is opportunistic, but they're prone to giving up points. At worst, the Vikings should score 17 points. That means at most, the Saints need to score 32 points to cover the spread. The Saints have always fed off the emotion off their home crowd, and Saints fans will be amp'ed up. I see a Saints blowout or a shootout that will cover the 48.5 points in week 1.

OVER 48.5

Week 1 NFL Totals Predictions: Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (37)
The Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay are expected to be stagnant offenses. The Browns will be playing their first regular season game with Jake Delhomme, and the Buccaneers are still maturing with Josh Freeman.

This game should be low scoring. If it goes over 37, it won't be by much. Don't expect both teams to score over 20, although one team could reach 24. I'd expect a game in the teens.

UNDER 37

Week 1 NFL Totals Predictions: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (39)
Last year's games between these teams resulted in scores of 48 and 45. Miami scored 38 in one game while Buffalo scored 31 in another. Both teams have made off-season acquisitions to their offenses that should prove beneficial. There's no reason to expect less than 39 points.

OVER 39

Week 1 NFL Totals Predictions: Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (45)
Will Terrell Owens immediately impact the Bengals offense? That's what this prediction comes down too. The Patriots scored 20 points or more in all their regular season home games last season, so it's seems safe to assume a minimal of 20 points. That still doesn't mean the Bengals can cover, but they should have trouble covering Owens and Johnson with their questionable secondary.

Flip a coin here. Could be 42 or it could be 48. The over/under is 45. I'm putting my faith in the offenses.

OVER 45

Week 1 NFL Totals Predictions: Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (47)
The Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans should have some of the NFL's most dynamic offenses. In 2009, these two teams combined for 62 points in Houston as the Colts won 35-27. Could early season sluggishness and familiarity impact the offenses in this game? My prediction is no.

OVER 47

Week 1 NFL Totals Predictions: Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars (40)
The Denver Broncos and Jacksonville Jaguars are two running oriented teams who rely on their defenses. 20 point performances from David Garrard and Kyle Orton are the exception, not the norm. Unless the score is 24-17 or 27-17ish, I can't forecast a game over 40 points.

UNDER 40

Week 1 NFL Totals Predictions: Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (37.5)
Pittsburgh is starting a third string quarterback. The Falcons have a young quarterback going into Pittsburgh to play against one of the league's fiercest defenses. This game screams defensive battle and offensive struggles.

UNDER 37.5

Week 1 NFL Totals Predictions: Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans (40.5)
The Oakland Raiders averaged less than 13 points per game in 2010, and their offensive woes will likely continue into this season. Vince Young is a proven regular season winning quarterback, but they're not an offensive juggernaut by any means.

This over/under could depend on Chris Johnson's ability to tear through the Oakland Raiders rushing defense. Even then, it's difficult taking the over when Oakland's offense is involved. Even with 17, the Titans need 24. First week of the season will probably increase sluggishness of both offenses.

UNDER 40.5

Week 1 NFL Totals Predictions: Carolina Panthers at New York Giants (41)
These teams have played playoff implicating games the past two seasons. For the #1 NFC seed in 2008, the Giants ran for over 300 yards en route to a 34-28 OT victory. In 2009, the Panthers ran for over 250 en route to a 41-9 victory that eliminated the Giants from playoff contention.

Both teams make you think defense, but these teams have struggled fiercely against each others rushing games. Expect a good dose of scoring from this week 1 match-up.

OVER 41

Week 1 NFL Totals Predictions: Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (44)
These defenses could both be atrocious in 2010. The games between these two teams in 2010 went for 60 and 72, with the latter being in Chicago. Lions defense should improve, but the Bears may not. With a Mike Martz offensive scheme and a maturing Lions offense, how can you accept anything under 50?

OVER 44

Week 1 NFL Totals Predictions: Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams (39.5)
The Rams have a rookie quarterback leading them against an offense led by Derek Anderson. 40? Maybe Vegas meant 4 here... Last year's games went 34 and 41 with Warner, so logic defies 40 happening (that means it probably will, but I digress).

UNDER 39.5

Week 1 NFL Totals Predictions: Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (47.5)
The combination of the Green Bay Packers offense and the Philadelphia Eagles wide receiving sets against the Packers vulnerable secondary makes this a tempting pick. Oh, and the memory of Green Bay's playoff games last season and a sluggish defensive performance in the preseason.

I don't expect a shootout, but I expected a 31-24ish type of victory. Be warned, however: The Packers gave up one of the lowest overall amount of points in 2009. Their woes came against top-tier quarterbacks like Roethlisberger, Warner, and Favre. Kolb isn't near that stratosphere, and young quarterbacks can be shaky against the 3-4 for the first few times.

OVER 47.5

Week 1 NFL Totals Predictions: San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (37)
Last year's games were 33 and 37. That sounds about right for a stout 49ers defense that relies on game management offensive schemes. The Seattle Seahawks should be sluggish under a new coaching regime and a restructured group of receivers. Give or take some points here, but I'm taking the low end.

UNDER 37

Week 1 NFL Totals Predictions: Dallas Cowboys () at Washington Redskins (40)
The Dallas Cowboys offense struggled in the preseason, but they have a tremendous amount of talent. The Redskins are under a new coaching regime and, while their defense has been their staple point for seasons, could struggle to the transition of a 3-4 and Albert Haynesworth's disturbing antics. Donovan Mcnabb's health doesn't help their situation, either.

Last year's games were 7-6 and 17-0. 6 Points in 2 games against the Cowboys defense. In my view, 24 points is the absolute minimum you'll need to expect from the Cowboys to cover the spread... and you'd probably be closer to 31.

UNDER 40

Week 1 NFL Totals Predictions: Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets (35.5)
The Baltimore Ravens do have a vulnerable secondary, but Mark Sanchez won't exploit it too much, if it all. I could see the Jets getting up to about 13 points in this game. That would mean the Ravens need 23. I'm not confident enough in either offense here.

UNDER 35.5

Week 1 NFL Totals Predictions: San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (45)
With Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis, the Chiefs should be better based on coaching. I could see this game playing into the 20s or even 30s for both teams. Hey, after a defensive snoozer, you gotta have some fireworks, right?

OVER 45

Want More?
Interested in my predictions against the spread and top-10 power rankings? Want more predictions from other writers? Check out at my website HERE

REFERENCES:
Cooper's Picks. Over/Under Odds are from 9-5-10 at 12PM CT.