Pacquiao vs. Cotto Preview

The Manny Pacquiao vs. Miguel Cotto super-fight will be held on November 14, 2009. Already people are frantically searching for Pacquiao vs. Cotto predictions and a Pacquiao vs. Cotto preview, so why not oblige them as soon as possible. Considering the magnitude of this contest, it's never too early to take a look at the match to see how it might play out.

Who is Manny Pacquiao?

Manny Pacquiao is one of the best pound for pound fighters in the sport. He has a career record of 49 wins against three losses and two draws, with 37 wins coming via stoppage. He is coming off star-making performances against Ricky Hatton and Oscar De La Hoya and he also holds wins over Juan Manuel Marquez, Erik Morales and Marco Antonio Barrera.

While most of his career was spent below 130 pounds, he has recently jumped up to the welterweight range for bigger paydays against bigger opponents. He has only lost once in the last 10 years.

Who is Miguel Cotto?

Miguel Cotto is a two-time welterweight champion, and was previously a longstanding junior welterweight titleholder. He sports a record of 34 wins with 27 knockouts and only one defeat. He has wins over the likes of Shane Mosley, Zab Judah, Joshua Clottey and Paul Malignaggi.

Cotto was undefeated until he met Antonio Margarito in the ring during the summer of 2008. Since being stopped by Margarito, Cotto has won two fights in a row and has regained a version of the welterweight strap.

Pacquiao vs. Cotto Preview - 4 Questions to Ask

Pacquiao vs. Cotto Question 1: How will the catchweight affect the fight?

The fight is being contested at 145 lbs, which is two pounds lighter than the welterweight limit of 147 lbs. This should work in Pacquiao's favor, as he is the naturally smaller man. Cotto was very vulnerable in his final fights at junior welterweight due to the strain of cutting weight.

Having to cut down lower than he has been accustomed to for the last three years could bring back some of those vulnerabilities, a possibility that team Pacquiao clearly had in mind when making the bout and demanding a catchweight. If you don't think cutting weight can make you a weaker fighter, see De La Hoya's performance against Pacquiao, where he cut down to 147 lbs for the first time in a decade.

Pacquiao vs. Cotto Question 2: Will Manny Pacquiao stand up to Miguel Cotto's punches?

Considering the shell of Oscar De La Hoya that entered the ring to face Pacquiao, Miguel Cotto will be the hardest puncher that he has ever fought. He has broken down and brutalized fighters who have been far more accustomed to facing larger opponents than Manny Pacquiao currently is; fighters like Carlos Quintana, Zab Judah and Paulie Malignaggi. If Miguel Cotto catches Pacquiao with a flush shot, you can be sure that the effects will be felt by the Filipino sensation. Which brings us to Pacquiao vs. Cotto Question 3...

Pacquiao vs. Cotto Question 3:Will Miguel Cotto be able to catch up to Manny Pacquiao?

There are some things that you can't truly prepare for with sparring. The frenetic style, blazing foot speed and hand speed, and pinpoint accuracy of Manny Pacquiao all fall into that category.

However, his speed can be neutralized with a combination of several different factors. First, you need to employ a quick jab to keep Pacquiao busy with your own offense and keep him at arm's length as much as possible. Second, you need to have a sturdy enough chin to keep your offense intact even when you get caught. Third, you need to cut off the ring, and fire back when fired upon.

Pacquiao's arch-nemesis, Juan Manuel Marquez, has employed that strategy to perfection, however his chin has come up just a bit short, costing him valuable points. Erik Morales, the lone man to officially beat Pacquiao in the last decade, employed a version of this plan in their first encounter when he came away with the win.

Miguel Cotto has an underrated jab, he can cut off the ring and he can fire back when fired upon. But that one remaining element, his chin, brings us to Pacquiao vs. Cotto question 4...

Pacquiao vs. Cotto Question 4: How will Miguel Cotto's chin hold up?

Miguel Cotto was gaining a reputation as a very "chinny" fighter during the end of his 140 lb tenure. However, his move up to 147 lbs alleviated some of those concerns, as he was clearly stronger in the ring and held up much better, even against larger fighters. That was of course until the Margarito fight. Cotto withstood a great deal of pressure but eventually crumbled.

After a fighter has been knocked out once, his chin may end up "broken", both mentally and physically, leaving him more prone to future slipups. Another concern is the catchweight, as discussed previously. If Cotto has to struggle to get down to 145 lbs, his chin could very well be a major concern when faced with Pacquiao's lightning quick strikes.

Pacquiao vs. Cotto Prediction

The answers to the above four questions will ultimately determine how the Pacquiao vs. Cotto fight plays out. The sports books, and the legion of Filipino fans laying down money on the bout, clearly feel that those questions will be answered in Pacquiao's favor. As of today he is a -260 favorite against Cotto, while Cotto is a +200 underdog.

Is this a case of severely underestimating Miguel Cotto, or conversely, a case of extremely overrating Manny Pacquiao? Absolutely, on both counts.

Miguel Cotto has faced diversity in the ring and has faced many top fighters, and he has emerged victorious all but once. That one exception, as brutal as it was, was against a fighter who may or may not have been cheating at the time; a fighter who also had the perfect style to match Cotto's.

Meanwhile, as Pacquiao has bounced around the weight classes adding big names to his resume, he has yet to face a fighter as dangerous as Cotto is. De La Hoya was long since removed from his prime, and was clearly running on fumes during the contest. Hatton was coming off a previous knockout loss to Floyd Mayweather and had been continually exposed as being one dimensional and somewhat chinny himself.

With all of that said, am I bucking the trend and picking Cotto here in my Pacquiao vs. Cotto prediction? No. In honestly answering all four of the above questions I posed, I feel Pacquiao is going to win the day yet again.

I think the contracted weight of 145 lbs will be a detriment to Cotto and his strength (question 1). I think Pacquiao will hold up against Cotto's punches (question 2), in large part because I think Cotto won't be able to consistently catch up to him (question 3). Finally, I think that even though Pacquiao can't one-punch KO Cotto ala the Ricky Hatton fight, his punches will be able to hurt him and slow him down after rounds of accumulation (question 4).

Four out of four isn't bad. Pacquiao won't decimate Cotto though. Expect a tough battle that goes the distance, with both fighters being cut and busted up, and both fighters surviving several tenuous moments. Ultimately, Pacquiao will win more rounds and inflict more damage, and he'll take home the decision victory.