Paper: Israel Seriously Considering Attack on Iran

If the Israelis were seriously considering an attack on Iran, I doubt it would be plastered all over the Jerusalem Post.

From the JP March 5th: "Israel is seriously considering taking unilateral military action to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, according to a report by top US political figures and experts released Wednesday. The report also says Israel's time frame for action is growing shorter, not only because of Iranian advances, but because Teheran might soon acquire upgraded air defenses and disperse its nuclear program to additional locations."

A key point to remember here is that there is a world of difference between having enough enriched uranium for a weapon, and actually producing a weapon or being able to deliver that weapon to a target. I suspect there is more, rather than less, time to deal with this issue.

"The report, "Preventing a Cascade of Instability," was put out by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP). It also argues that international sanctions against Iran need to be intensified urgently for the engagement the Obama administration is planning with Teheran to be effective."

International economic sanctions against Iran are unlikely to increase in severity unless the Russians and Chinese can somehow be brought on board. Military action is also unlikely, given the potential regional consequences. In the end, the international community will probably have to accept the reality of a nuclear-armed Iran.

"The bipartisan group also recommended increasing security guarantees and the supply of missile defenses and other protective measures to allies in the Middle East, both to reassure them of America's commitment to them and to dampen the perceived effectiveness, and hence appeal, of nuclear weapons for Iran. But the report, several of whose authors met with high-level Israeli officials to assess their perspective, notes that Israel is not interested in becoming part of an American nuclear umbrella, even as Gulf countries want more assurances on that front."

Israel is likely to want to be able to maintain its ability to determine its own course with respect to Iran, and to not be tied to dictates from the Obama administration.

"The study stresses the importance of having a united global front and pushes for intensified diplomacy with Russia to both make sanctions more effective and to persuade the Russians not to deliver the S-300 system."

And therein lies the problem. Russia has demonstrated time and again that it is not willing to go along with the international community when it comes to more stringent action against Iran.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1236103158937&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull