Parallels Strong Between Peyton Manning and Pujols, Jeter

We heard last off-season that the Indianapolis Colts were working on a deal that would make Peyton Manning the highest paid player in the history of the NFL and allow him to finish his career in Indy. The summer passed, and we heard bits and pieces about how the two sides were working on such a deal, but not urgently. The 2010 season came and went with no contract, and now you can find carbon copy stories of last year's reports. In fact, if you don't look carefully at the datelines, it's hard to tell which rendition you're reading. So what the heck is going on? Why hasn't Manning been extended yet? There are likely several factors at play, from the economy to age to the NFL labor situation, but one thing seems certain now: this deal, when it's finally done, won't be all that we were once led to believe that it would be.

First of all, everyone is being cautious as the NFL hurtles toward a potential work stoppage at the hands of an owner-imposed lockout. No one is quite sure what the new salary landscape will look like, so both sides in this negotiation are probably a little trepidatious. The Colts don't want to overpay, especially when this uncertainty is coupled with the overall continued sluggish economy. Manning, on the other hand, surely doesn't want to get short-changed on what will be his last big contract.

Beyond the economy and the NFL's precarious position, there is the status of Manning himself. On the one hand, Peyton is among the absolute elite to ever play quarterback in the NFL. A compelling case can be made that he IS the greatest ever, and he'll probably own all of the big records by the time he retires. Still, Manning turns 35 in March, and chances are very good that his finest days are behind him, no matter how much it pains Colts fans to admit it. Brett Favre's penultimate hurrah with the Minnesota Vikings notwithstanding, not many quarterbacks improve in their mid-thirties and beyond.

The Colts, then, are left in the position of having made a big promise to the franchise icon but also being faced with the reality that they're likely going to be overpaying for his services in the next few years. This is very similar to where the New York Yankees were with Derek Jeter earlier this off-season and where the St. Louis Cardinals are with Albert Pujols right now. All three of these guys are all-time greats, all three are on the wrong side of 30 (or 35), and all three want to be paid as if they're at the top of their professions (admittedly closer to the truth for Pujols and Manning than for Jeter). The harsh reality is, though, that these players would likely find the free agent market a whole lot less lucrative than the offers their hometown teams pony up. They are franchise faces, and those franchises are going to pay some kind for premium to maintain the relationship.

So where does this leave Manning and the Colts? My guess is that they work out a deal long enough to keep Manning around for another five years or so, and lucrative enough, up front, to allow both sides to claim that the promise of elevating him to "highest-paid" status has been honored. The back end will probably be fairly small, though, and it won't be long until another player passes Manning on the financial scale again. All of which should serve to remind us that we've been witness to a remarkable superstar the last 13 seasons, and that it won't last for ever. Enjoy it while it does.