Peak Oil is Here

World oil production peaked last year and will start to drop by several percent a year, a shift that will force a drastic structural change to the global economy, according to a new report unveiled today by the Energy Watch Group.

Presented at the Foreign Press Association in London, the report predicts that global oil production will be dramatically lower than today by 2030. The rate at which production will decline means it's unlikely the shortfall can be filled by other fossil fuels, nuclear power and alternative energy sources, according to the Energy Watch Group.

"The most alarming finding is the steep decline of the oil supply after peak," said Jörg Schindler of the Energy Watch Group.

The forecast runs counter to the outlook proposed by the International Energy Agency, which has said a dramatic change in energy supplies isn't likely in the near term. However, the Energy Watch Group said there are reasons to doubt the accuracy of current figures for remaining global oil reserves. While industry data indicated there are about 1,255 gigabarrels (a gigabarrel is one billion barrels) of oil left, the Energy Watch Group estimates the real number is closer to 854 gigabarrels.

The Energy Watch Group made that determination by using actual production data, which is more verifiable, than reserve data provided by oil suppliers and companies.

A leader of the world's largest oil-producing country agreed with the Energy Watch Group's assessment.

"The oil boom is over and will not return," said King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia. "All of us must get used to a different lifestyle."

Many in the oil industry and government have tried to dispel concerns about near-term peak oil by attempting to debunk its proponents. However, Jeremy Leggett, a former member of the British Government's Renewables Advisory Board and now CEO of Solarcentury, attributed that attitude to "a culture of institutionalized denial."

The Energy Watch Group warned that declining oil supplies will force fundamental changes in the global economic system and affect almost every aspect of daily life. The group also cautioned that supply shortages in future could lead to mass unrest in different parts of the world.

"For government, industry and the wider public, just muddling through is not an option anymore as this situation could spin out of control and turn into a meltdown of society," the group stated in the press release announcing its oil report.

The Energy Watch Group, "Peak Oil Could Trigger Meltdown of Society." URL: (http://www.energywatchgroup.org/Releases.26+M5d637b1e38d.0.html)