Pennsylvania May Reject Arlen Specter in Today's Primary

Arlen Specter blew the 20-point lead he had in the polls at the time he changed parties. Specter had been riding high on the praise of Democrats desperate to get him on board to support President Obama's health care bill. After the cheering stopped, and the health care bill passed, many Democrats paused to consider what they had in Specter. After Specter aired an ad attacking Joe Sestak's 30-year military career at which he retired a rear admiral, Sestak was ready to tell them-- in pictures.

Two weeks ago, Sestak started airing his own ad depicting Specter in the arms of President George Bush, Sen. Rick Santorum, and also shaking hands with Sarah Palin. Specter's lead, by that time, had narrowed to a few points and some polls had Sestak up by as much as 5 points. Today's Quinnipiac Pennsylvania poll shows Sestak with a 1 point lead. Moreover, the cheering from the Democrats had stopped and the White House was rethinking its position in the November elections. Originally, the thinking was that Specter pulled the most weight, whereas the polls showed Sestak as a virtual unknown. At that point, it was easy to promise Arlen Specter the president's full support but, as Specter sank and the former Navy man found his political voice and began to rise in the polls, it occurred to the Obama administration that something might be happening with the people out there. It wouldn't look good to back another loser, and the administration was still smarting from President Obama's failed visits in support of Martha Coakley in Massachusetts.

For the tight Pennsylvania primary race, the White House thought best to keep the president apart and to support Specter only by advertising an old clip where the president tells an adoring office that he "love(s) Arlen Specter." President Obama may have waved to Pennsylvania from Air Force One while on his way to Ohio on May 15, but thus far he hasn't touched down, and is leaving it to Vice-President Biden to buttress Arlen Specter's campaign. On Wall Street, that's called hedging. It means that, should Sestak win the PA Primary tomorrow, the president can smile more genuinely in the photo op Sestak's win would afford. I'm not the only one who's cynical about the president's weak-kneed support of Arlen Specter, and I'm not surprised, either. I believe bailing on Specter was always part of the political calculation. However, you can get the opinion of Rick Unger on True/Slant in an article which quotes the Daily Beast. Unger says the White House expects Specter to lose; I'd say they engineered it.

The certainty of a Sestak win is so great at the White House that the vice-president, who has made sweeping promises of support to Arlen Specter, has also not shown up to stump with the candidate. Sum total of Biden's support has been the occasional radio interview from Washington and a barrage of robo-calls. I've received about five automated calls from Biden, two of them today. I don't know if anyone at the White House cares, or whether there is a local glitch on my phone line, but the audio quality was poor, scratchy, and sounded as if the vice-president was on lithium.

The Personal Side:

When Arlen Specter was a Republican, I didn't mind him so much as others might. I voted for him at the regular urging of a relative of his who is a friend of mine. Though I'm conservative in areas like 2^nd Amendment rights, U.S. foreign policy, and military affairs, I tend to give people a lot of room for their beliefs, even when they're different from mine. I favor a high degree of individual and personal freedom accompanied by a high degree of responsibility and accountability.

Anyway, Specter's voting record, until recently, has been Republican minded. Arlen Specter voted against cap and trade legislation, and he supported President Bush with regard to the Iraq War. He voted for free trade even while he was criticized for "sending jobs overseas." Specter's votes to support and confirm Supreme Court Justices Alito and Thomas seem strange now , especially when his new photo ops emphasize his support of Obama nominee Kagan, whom he voted against for Solicitor-General.

Specter also had a good second amendment voting record, and voted against President Clinton's assault weapons ban. That "assault weapon" term should be revised because it implies that owning a particular kind of rifle means that you wish to assault someone, and that the rifle can fire bursts of automatic fire, both of which are false assumptions made into political issues for the sole purpose of increasing governmental authority at the expense of the U.S. Constitution. Gun control legislation is merely a form of political pablum that makes people feel safe while citizens become criminals and criminals become a voting bloc.

From the looks of things, I believe Arlen Specter will lose in today's primary race in spite of having a superior and long-standing organization. Specter's support is strong in Rendell's Philadelphia, but the black community is not enthused by the long-time Republican, and will likely not turn out in the large numbers they did for President Obama. The president's failure to come out and pitch for Specter could be a decisive factor in cementing a Sestak win.

Among other metropolitan Pennsylvanians, President Obama is not as popular as he once was, and there is a strong feeling that Democrats will provide more of the same in the way of job loss, bailouts, and excessive spending. Republican Pat Toomey has been offering standard conservative commentary, content to let Specter and Sestak battle it out, not wishing to provide Democrats with the brushes they would use to paint him as a "far-right" candidate. He needn't worry too much about that. It's likely that tactic will only work with the Obama hard-core base, which has so far managed to fantasize an alternative reality having little to do with the world we live in.

Out in the sticks, where I live now, the feeling is just generally strong against Democrats. Economic conditions are very bad in Pennsylvania, and they see government as the new fat cats who are pinch hitting for their Wall Street cronies. For many Pennsylvanians, their only pension plan is their house, and that's been a loser in the Obama economy.

Sestak is seen as his ads describe him, as "the Democrat," and a clean-cut Navy guy at that. Specter is seen as doubly soiled-on one side by his new Obama affiliations and on the other by his old Republican affiliations. Earlier on, I wished that Senator Specter would gracefully retire into the elder statesman role and write a sententious book. But now I have little respect or patience for a career politician who holds on to power for no purpose but his own self-service.

Sources:

http://trueslant.com/rickungar/2010/05/17/the-white-house-bails-out-on-arlen-specter/

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1455