Pennsylvania Primary Poll Data: Clinton vs. Obama

Tuesday's Democratic Primary in Pennsylvania is a crucial decision-maker in nominating the Presidential candidate for elections later this year. 158 delegates total are at stake in the state, the largest chunk to be contested in the next few weeks. After weeks of accusations and self-promotion, both candidates will turn to Pennsylvania voters tomorrow.

Recent statewide polling results from Real Clear Politics indicate that Clinton is ahead of Obama by 5.9%. This number is an average of polling results from several independent polling companies. Rasmussen reports that about 7% of the voters are still undecided and 3% are likely to change their minds. They also report that there is a shift in voter preference since early 2008 -- at that time, voters inclined towards either candidate viewed the other favorably but now only 42-43% of voters view the competing candidate favorably. This will have consequences in the final elections against Republican candidate John McCain and will weigh in the decision of super-delegates to support either of the Democratic candidates.

American Research Group reports about a 9% increase in the Clinton support base since late March 2008. According to their polling data, both candidates are tied amongst men in Pennsylvania. Clinton leads Obama by a significant margin of 23%. 86% of black voters back Obama while Clinton draws support from 63% of whites. Clinton beats Obama amongst young voters by 9% according to their data - this base has been Obama's stronghold during the past Democratic primaries. Amongst older voters (aged over 50), Clinton leads by 23%.

Currently Obama leads Clinton in both delegate count and popular vote. He is ahead in the delegate count by 146 - this includes estimates of super-delegates supporting the candidates. Obama's support comes mainly from Philadelphia, its western suburbs and some adjacent counties. Philadelphia's huge black voter population and educated, white-collar working class in its suburbs will likely swing the votes in his favor in the districts covering these regions. He looks poised to get support from Pittsburgh and its suburbs from their educated voters.

Clinton's support comes from the rural areas and blue collar workers. Regions in Pennsylvania adjoining Ohio and New Jersey have a population base similar to the demographics in those states where Clinton won with a comfortable margin. All polls indicate that these regions are posed to swing in her favor.

However, the percentage lead in popular votes maps does not directly map to a percentage lead in the delegate count. This mapping is based on how the delegates are distributed between the different congressional districts. Regions with stronger Democratic voting strength in past presidential and gubernatorial elections are allocated more delegates. Philadelphia and surrounding suburbs have a large number of delegates compared to the rural areas - this will diminish Clinton's lead over Obama.

Clinton looks in a good position to win Pennsylvania. However she needs a decisive victory to carry forth the race. She needs to score at least 10 percentage points over Obama to convince the super-delegates that she has the strength and momentum going into the Presidential elections. A victory by 15% may put her ahead of Obama in the popular vote - this will be the best scenario for Clinton. A victory by a margin less than 8-10% will most likely be inconsequential in turning the tide against Obama.