Political Analysis: Explaining the Ron Paul Phenomenon

Ron Paul is a 10-term Republican Congressman from Texas who is running for President at a time when Republican's aren't very popular and a member of the House of Representative hasn't won a party nomination, let alone a general election, in over 100 years. In fact, Rep. Paul isn't very popular among members of his own party. But despite everything that is against him, Paul has turned his insurgent candidacy into a fully fledged phenomenon that is sweeping the country.

In the beginning, passersby may have noticed "Ron Paul" spam in their MySpace accounts, or "Ron Paul Revolution" signs displayed in very unusual and conspicuous places around town. The politically savvy may even have watch him stumble and teeter in the first Republican debates, where he took on Giuliani and received harsh criticism from fellow Republicans as well as the media.

Today, the Ron Paul Revolution is in full steam. The campaign shocked the political world when it announced that it had raised over $5 million in campaign contributions in the third quarter; more that former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, and nearly as much as Arizona Senator John McCain.

Jaws dropped even further with last week's announcement that Paul's campaign raised an astonishing $4.2 million in just a single day, consisting of mostly small donations from 36,000 supports, mostly made over the Internet.

There seems to be no stopping the trend either. The following week the campaign took in an addition $1 million from 12,000 donors, half of which were new contributors. This leaves Paul very close to his fourth quarter goal of $12 million. An estimated $8.2 million has already been raised.

Despite shattering single-day fund raising records, Paul's movement hasn't translated into measurable support, at least not yet. The most recent Quinnipiac University poll has Paul polling at 1%, behind fell members of the US House of Representatives, Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo. Paul isn't fairing must better in early states either; a New Hampshire Institute of Politics/Saint Anselm College poll showed him at just 7% in the Granite State.

Who is Ron Paul's "base"?

Ron Paul's supporters aren't typical Republicans, or even typical voters for that matter. They're young, disenfranchised, oftentimes extremist, and ultra-activist - or new to politics - and they are reminiscent of Howard Dean's failed 2004 presidential bid.

In some cases Paul supporters have proven to be anti-establishment to the point that they believe that the Bush administration plotted and executed the 9/11 terrorist attacks. These kinds of supporters are the loud voice of a small minority.

Why does Paul win so many TV and online polls, but not scientific polls?

This is where the "ultra-activist" factor comes into play. Like Howard Dean before him, Paul's campaign managers have managed to tap into the Internet culture. Online and real life social groups organize to "stuff" electronic ballot boxes as a strong sign of support for their man.

Another presidential hopeful with virtually no chance at getting elected is Democratic Congressman Dennis Kucinich. Kucinich's supporters, like Paul's, often mobilize to ensure that online and TV votes are won by their candidate and no other. The Ohio Congressman consistently places ahead of Hillary Clinton in most online polls.

What attracts people to Paul's campaign?

There are several factors that lead both regular voters and extremists to rally behind Paul.

1. They have never heard his message before.

It's important to keep in mind that Paul isn't a true Republican. He is, in fact, the only true Libertarian who shares the stage with the Republican presidential candidates at every debate. Every year the Libertarian Party nominates a national candidate and every year that person goes unnoticed, including Ron Paul's 1988 presidential run. In a two party system where third parties can never break out, many voters are, for the first time, being exposed to Libertarian views, beliefs and polices

2. Ron Paul is a classical conservative in a time when neo-conservatism has failed.

Patrick J. Buchanan might be the first person to remind the media that real conservatives, the classic conservatives, do not believe in foreign wars of intervention or big government spending. The Neo-Con movement, under President George W. Bush, has taken the traditionally conservative Republican Party in the exact opposite direction, much to the distain of "real" conservatives. (After all, Republicans haven't been the liberal northern party since desegregation in the South caused party ideologies to flip.) Ron Paul is the only national Republican candidate who stands for classically conservative principals. He would make Pat Buchanan proud in many ways.

3. Ron Paul is the ultimate anti-establishment candidate.

It is increasingly popular and fashionable for Americans, especially youths, to say of government that it corrupt and non-representative of the American people. Those same groups of people, the disenfranchised - those who live on the frayed ends of society; the conspiracy theorists, the anti-tax advocates, the drug legalization proponents; they look at Ron Paul and say "he's one of us." With Ron Paul, for the first time a new segment of American's feels inclusion in the political process, and that's a good thing.

The Greater Good...

Ron Paul's policies may not exactly be possible to implement, and it may not be possible for Paul himself to get elected. However, the more exposure the Texas Congressman receives the more legitimate his views become and the more viable a national Libertarian party is as a result. Bringing new ideas and new voters into the system is never a bad thing. Whether or not those newcomers will stay involved once their candidate loses the race remains to be seen, however. One can only hope.