Political Polls Show North Carolina at Odds with National Trends

While the Real Clear Politics average of several national polls shows Senator Obama leading Senator McCain 48.2% to 41.03%, the results in one key battleground state are quite different. North Carolina played a vital role in the presidential primary race as a landslide vote in favor of Senator Obama virtually eliminated any possibility of Senator Clinton winning the Democratic nomination for the office of President. Senator Obama charged to victory based on solid support of the state's Afro-American voters and voters from the liberal wing of the state's Democratic party.

As North Carolina proved an important primary state it will also be key battleground state in the general election. With 15 electoral votes the state is 9^th (tied with Georgia and New Jersey) in contributing to the most electoral votes. The only states with more electoral influence are California, Texas, New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois Michigan and Ohio. This makes the Presidential stake in the state very high.

With statewide polls of registered voters the inclusion of Republican and Independent voters indicate that the state cannot be taken for granted by either party or candidate. Senator Obama's impressive showing in the primaries may not carry over in the state as a whole. The most recent Rasmussen poll shows Senator McCain leads Senator Obama 45% to 43%. The Survey USA poll shows a wider margin for Senator McCain 51% to 43%. A Civitas Poll is somewhat in between the other two with McCain leading 45% to 41.%.

For the week ending June 13 the Real Clear Politics average of polls show Mccain leads in the state 46% to 41.8%.

In reading newspapers and watching Television news reports form across the state the issues most important to North Carolina voters include the economy/jobs, gasoline prices, illegal immigration, The Iraq War, healthcare availability and taxes.

The two candidates could not be more diverse on these issues.

Economy/Jobs: North Carolina as a result of its' reliance on traditional jobs in the textile and furniture industries has suffered the loss of thousands of jobs as these industries have relocated to Mexico and off shore locations. Most North Carolinians blame this loss and relocation of jobs on NAFTA.

Senator McCain has been a strong supporter of NAFTA and of free trade. Senator Obama has at various times been on both sides of this issue, but is currently voicing opposition to NAFTA. The loss of jobs and Senator McCain's support of NAFTA will give senator Obama the edge on this issue.

Gasoline Prices: Neither candidate seems to have an edge here. Senator McCain has proposed a gas tax holiday, which most voters realize would provide little, and temporary relief at best. He has also proposed an end to the moratorium on onshore drilling in order to provide more domestic oil resources. North Carolina voters are split down the middle on this issue with coastal residents strongly opposed to drilling. The North Carolina Republican party's website has denounced McCain's support for drilling off the North Carolina coast, calling his position "risky".

Senator Obama proposes addressing gasoline costs by increasing government requirements for fuel economy in American cars and by developing new sources of energy to include alternate fuels, wind and solar power and reducing consumption through the use of more public transportation.

Senator Obama received some bad press and voter reaction when he commented that he saw no problem with $5.00 per gallon gasoline except that the price rose to fast.

Neither candidate has an advantage in the state on the fuel cost issue.

Illegal Immigration: North Carolinians feel strongly on this issue as the state has one of the fastest growing populations of illegals entering the country. The Raleigh News and Observer reported that 395,000 undocumented immigrants reside in the state and that the number is growing daily.A large majority of voters want our borders closed. However both candidates favor amnesty and neither has come out in favor of tight border control.

Townhall reports that Senator Obama has announced that he favors giving 12 million illegal aliens health coverage under a federally supported program . This will cost the senator a great deal of support among many North Carolina voters as they see this as accepting the illegals and providing illegal immigrants benefits denied many North Carolina citizens.

Iraq War: As the state is home to two major military bases (Fort Bragg and Camp LeJeune) and home to many active an retired military personnel support for the war is strong in the state. No one wants to prolong the war, but no one wants to "surrender" and admit defeat in Iraq. Senator McCain has a decided edge on this issue.

Taxation: Senator Obama has announced is in favor of repealing the Bush tax cuts and in favor of increasing the tax burden on 'wealthy Americans, and increasing the social security, Medicare and capital gains taxes.

Senator McCain favors maintaining the Bush tax cuts and not raising taxes.

North Carolinians most of whom are struggling to make ends meet and to afford ever increasing gasoline prices and the inflation which results from higher fuel costs, will not accept higher taxes whether these come in the form of repealing tax cuts (and increasing taxes) or increasing taxes on higher income people or increasing social security, Medicare and capital gains taxes.

A vast majority of voters in the state feel they are already over taxed in an economy which shows no signs of increasing their ability to pay higher taxes.

The tax issue heavily favors Senator McCain in North Carolina.

Healthcare: Senator McCain has based his healthcare plan on making healthcare more affordable. He states the reason many Americans are uninsured is that they simply can't afford healthcare coverage. Under senator McCain's plan the government's role would be to drive down the cost of healthcare making it more affordable. The role of government would be to make healthcare more affordable by offering more and less expensive generic drugs, making available walk-in clinics in public places, like Walmart or community malls and by using physician assistants more widely in instances of minor medical problems. To make insurance more affordable he would give full tax credits for money spent on healthcare insurance premiums.

Senator Obama proposes government play a larger role in administering healthcare. His emphasis is on improving the quality of healthcare by requiring doctors and hospitals to provide proof of quality care before payment is rendered. North Carolinians worry that such a system would require another expanded government bureaucracy necessary to monitor doctor reporting and an equally cumbersome administrative requirement for doctors and hospitals. All of this would drive up the cost of healthcare.

The Obama plan also calls for a ten billion investment in healthcare information technology over the next five years and increasing the number of Americans with healthcare coverage, but offers no explanation of where the dollars to cover these programs would be found.

While neither of the candidate's healthcare proposals fully address the concerns of North Carolina voters most would agree that added government involvement in medical decisions and control of healthcare is not solution. On this basis senator McCain's plan seems to be a better choice here.

Neither candidate has campaigned in the state since the primaries ended. Senator Obama is using frequent television commercials to stay in front of the voters.

The real test which in the end influences the vote of North Carolinians is when the candidates themselves come to the state and answer specifically to the people on the above issues.

It is anticipated that senator Obama will hold his coalition of Afro-American and liberal Democrats in the general election and senator McCain will hold statewide Republicans including the much discussed Evangelical Right. The election may well come down to who best appeals to independents and undecided in the state.

With its newly found importance, North Carolina expects an active campaign by both candidates in the upcoming four months.