Politics and If-Then Statements, and the "Ouster" of Trent Lott

Many Americans have problems with If-Then statements, and thus are prone to jump to conclusions that are perhaps unwarranted.

At Senator Strom Thurmond's 100th birthday party, in December, 2002, Senator Trent Lott said "I want to say this about my state: When Strom Thurmond ran for president [in 1948], we voted for him. We're proud of it. And if the rest of the country had followed our lead, we wouldn't have had all these problems over all these years, either," Lott later apologized, saying that "A poor choice of words conveyed to some the impression that I embraced the discarded policies of the past. Nothing could be further from the truth, and I apologize to anyone who was offended by my statement." Nevertheless, this incident caused him to be pressured into resigning as incoming Senate Majority leader. Evidently, Lott had said something similar in 1980 at a rally for presidential candidate Ronald Reagan in Jackson, Mississippi, at which Thurmond was the keynote speaker. After Thurmond spoke, Lott told the group: "You know, if we had elected this man 30 years ago, we wouldn't be in the mess we are today."

Let's analyze this from a logical standpoint. The problem here is one of material implication. Thurmond was not elected president in 1948, and any If-Then statement with a vacuous hypothesis is, by default, true, so we can "conclude" anything we want. For example: "If Thurmond had been elected president, then pigs would be whistling Dixie." is a true statement.

What people were really complaining about was the converse of Lott's statement, "If we didn't want to have all these troubles, then we should have elected Thurmond president in 1948." Lott denied this is what he meant, and I believe him. In all Lott's years in politics, I don't think there has been any indication that he harbors racist views, and that he has been anything other than a "good old boy". One thing I know for sure: In 2002 there was only one old-fashioned bigoted US Senator, and he was not ostracized by his colleagues. It certainly wasn't Lott, not even old Strom. His name was Jesse Helms, and he retired from the Senate that year, as did Thurmond. Helms died recently, and The Washington Post reprinted a scathing column by David Broder, "Jesse Helms, White Racist," written at the time Helms announced his retirement in 2001.

As for Trent Lott's "ouster" as Senate Majority leader, I have to say that he was done in by Republican "political correctness." The "politically correct posse", of whatever stripe, seldom has time to pause long enough to parse statements accurately, especially If-Then ones.