Poll: In Arizona, Rudy Giuliani Leads John McCain; Hillary Clinton Way Out in Front

According to the latest Rocky Mountain Poll, the race for the Republican nomination in Arizona is very much up in the air. There is still 33% who have yet to pick a candidate and none of the candidates gets more than 20%, which is what former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani comes in with. Arizona Senator John McCain has slipped way down in his home state, coming in with 18%. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson each come in with about 10% and the rest of the field, Texas Congressman Ron Paul, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who has already dropped out of the race, each gets less than 5%.

As is the case in many states, the Democratic primary shows New York Senator Hillary Clinton way in the lead with 44%, given her a 30% lead over her nearest competitors, Illinois Senator Barack Obama and former North Carolina Senator John Edwards. The rest of the field, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich and Delaware Senator Joe Biden and way down the list.

Clinton's support base in Arizona comes from the 35 to 54 age group, with 56%. With Ethnic groups, most of her support comes from Hispanics, 70%. The older voters give most of their support to Clinton also, 36%, but they also have a high percentage, 35%, who have yet to make up their minds.

Going back to the Republicans, Giuliani gets more support from the women with 22%, than he does with the men, 16%.
It is just the opposite with McCain. He gets more support from the men, 25% than he does from the women, 14%.

In some states like Iowa and New Hampshire, independents are allowed to vote in the primaries of the two parties, but not so in Arizona. But they will be playing a big part in the general election, so they were asked if they were allowed to voter in the primaries, which one would they pick, or would they not participate at all.

Just about half of the independent voters said they would if they could and out of that 54% would vote in the Republican Primary and 46% in the Democratic.

Of those who say they would vote in the Democratic primary, 35% would vote for Clinton. Obama would get 22% and Edwards would get 16%, more than either of them get from the voters in their own party.

With the independents who would vote in the Republican Primary, McCain does the best getting 29%, next comes Thompson with 13%, Huckabee with 10% and Giuliani with 6%/

This is a very important factor in Arizona with 28% of the voters being independents, while 33% are Democrats and 38% Republicans. In addition, most new voter registrations in Arizona are for independents.

Source: Rocky Mountain Poll http://www.brcpolls.com/