Poll: Clinton Leading in Florida, Obama Falling Behind; Edwards Places Third

In Florida, the state where all eyes turn during national elections, Hillary Clinton appears to be picking up tremendous steam over Barack Obama, a trend reflected in the national polls. According to Pollster.com, a composite of all Florida polls shows Clinton leading Obama 39.1% versus 17.1% as of July 16th. John Edwards brings up the third-place slot at 11.5%. Meanwhile, the whole of the nationwide polls show Clinton up 36.2% over Obama's 23.4% and Edwards' 12%.

A breakdown of recent, major individual polls according to the Pollster.com website shows these figures: Quinnipiac (for July 12th-July 16th) indicates Clinton is leading over Obama 36% versus 14% and Edwards received a 9% share in the race; ARG (July 12th-July 15th) reveals that Clinton is ahead 45% over Obama's 25%, with Edwards again at 9%. Trends show Clinton's emerging lead over Obama in the state of Florida as one looks back over polls from May and June.

Quinnipiac (June 18th-June 25th) showed Clinton at 38% and Obama at 15% with Edwards at 8%. Strategic Vision (June 15-June 17th) measured Clinton at 37% and Obama with a 21% share; Edwards garnered a sizable 20% favor. Zogby (June 4th-June 6th) indicates Clinton received 36% of respondents' votes and Obama 16% with Edwards again at third with 11%.

For May, Quinnipiac (May 24th-June 4th) respondents were spread across Clinton, Obama, and Edwards at 34%, 16%, and 11% respectively. IVR (May 31st) stood out with a large disparity between Clinton and Obama, with the former's 45% versus the latter's 18% (and Edwards at 14%), and Datamar (May 14th-May 18th) recorded this: John Edwards ranked ahead of Clinton at that point with 26% versus 24%, and Obama third at 19%. Strategic Vision (May 11th-May 13th) Showed Clinton at 37% and Obama with 20%, with Edwards taking in a 19% share of the respondents. St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9 (May 6th-May 9th) reflected Clinton at 42%, Obama collecting 19%, and Edwards faring with 12%. Finally, ARG (May 4th-May 8th) collected this information: Clinton led Obama 45%-17% and Edwards took in a 15% response rate.

Bell curves reveal that Clinton has had a solid gain in the Florida polls since before the start of the year and Obama enjoyed growing support until around May 2007, when his bell curve line began edging downward perceptibly. Edwards' line has seen a slight but steady descent beginning in the fourth quarter of last year. At any rate, though, Pollster's aggregate bell curve lines illustrate that Obama and Edwards have both already experienced poll highs to date and have since begun falling off, while Clinton has never polled higher in the state than she does at this time, with the aforementioned average of 39.1%.

Clinton is holding a lead not only in the polls but in the funding race, too. OrlandoSentinel.com shows that, in the first half of 2007, Clinton pulled in nearly $3.4 million of Sunshine State money, while Obama collected $1.95 million dollars during the same period. Edwards managed to bring in a million dollars from Florida supporters during that time.

Resources:

Lytel, Tamara, "Florida's Cash Plays Big Role in 2008 Race." OrlandoSentinel.com. 17 July 2007. 23 July 2007. http://www.orlandosentinel.com/orl-flabucks1707jul17,0,3749057.story

Pollster. 23 July 2007. http://www.pollster.com/08-FL-Dem-Pres-Primary.php