Poll: Obama Could Lose Democrat Votes Due to Race

A poll conducted by the Associated Press and Yahoo News, in conjunction with Stanford University, revealed that a fairly significant percentage of Democrats and independents may not vote for Senator Barack Obama because of his race.

According to an Associated Press story detailing the results of the survey, as many as "...one-third of white Democrats harbor negative views toward blacks - many calling them 'lazy,' 'violent,' 'responsible for their own troubles.'"

Poll results revealed that more than 33 percent of all white Democrats and independents concurred "...with at least one negative adjective about blacks...and they are significantly less likely to vote for Obama than those who don't have such views."

Race has emerged as a key theme in recent weeks, with some analysts and prominent Democrats, including Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius, saying that if Obama loses, the only explanation possible would be his race. Time Magazine also ran an article on closet racism and its possible effects on the presidential contest, and CNN's Jack Cafferty said an Obama loss could only be attributed to race.

Quoting Stanford political scientist Paul Sniderman, the Associated Press article says, "There are a lot fewer bigots than there were 50 years ago, but that doesn't mean there's only a few bigots."

The reason for the conduct of the poll was to figure out why Senator Obama was in a statistical dead heat with Senator John McCain, the Republican nominee. Given the unpopularity of President Bush, the fact that voters don't like to leave the same party in power for three consecutive terms, concerns about the economy, and expected Democratic gains around the country, many expected Obama to walk away with the presidential contest.

What's most troubling about the poll for Obama is that the race issue appears to be affecting choices within his own party, and among independents, a group that either candidate will need to swing the election his way. According to the survey, "Just seven in 10 people who call themselves Democrats support Obama, compared to the 85 percent of self-identified Republicans who back McCain."

And while there has been some speculation about racism among Republican voters, the Associated Press poll found that "...they weren't voting against Obama because of his race. Most Republicans wouldn't vote for any Democrat for president - white, black or brown."

In an interesting finding, though, the Associated Press says that Obama's race is not the primary factor keeping Democrats and independents from voting for him. "Doubts about his competency loom even larger," the AP says, with more than one fourth of all Democrats expressing "...doubt that Obama can bring about the change they want, and they are likely to vote against him because of that." In fact, the poll says, a full 30 percent of Democrats wary of Obama's ability to bring about change intend to vote for McCain.

The poll surveyed more than 2,200 adults from August 27 to September 5, and had a margin of error of 2.1 percent.