Poll Wars Forecast Winner of 2008 Presidential Election

It might not be over until the fat lady sings, but those dealing in poll numbers think that she needn't bother. What started out as a Gallup Poll Obama over McCain love fest is now turning into a feeding frenzy involving the Gallup Poll, Zogby Poll, and a few others that just cannot pass up the opportunity.

Gallup Poll: Obama over McCain 48% to 42%

Gallup is becoming rather sure that in the Obama McCain race, the victor is the man whose lead is increasing on a daily basis: Barack Obama. The numbers are impressive, and according to Gallup.com, the close race from May of 2008 is now developing into a rather respective lead for Obama with 48% over McCain's 42%.

Caveat: What about the remaining 10% who neither had an opinion nor declared they would refrain from voting for either candidate? According to the numbers on the Gallup poll, they could quite possible throw this lead rather easily. Additionally, mind you that these figures are based on interviews of 2,389 registered voters who a) consented to participate in this poll and b) promised to tell the truth.

Thus, before you make too much of the Gallup Poll Obama over McCain lead, remember that in this sample 1,146 voters liked Obama better, while 1,003 voters preferred McCain.

Zogby Poll:Obama over McCain 48% to 44%

Zogby is featuring an identical lead for Barack Obama, but the pollster has John McCain at 44%. It shows a very gradual increase in voter approval for Obama (from 47.7% on 10-06 to 47.8% on 10-08) while it shows a significant decline of approval for McCain (from 45.3% on 10-06 to 44.2% on 10-08).

Caveat: Zogby polled 1,203 individuals likely to cast a ballot in November over three days, with 400 voters polled on each day. Thus, to be fair, those 48% who liked Obama on 10-08 actually numbered 192 souls, while those who were willing to vote in favor of McCain numbered 176 individuals.

The Wild and Wooly World of Polling

Before you break out the Champaign and start celebrating, keep in mind two very important things pertaining to the wild and wooly world of polling.

#1: Guys circulating petition to end women's suffrage are getting girls to sign it

It was a silly stunt, but is showcased just how informed today's voter really is. A couple of guys are running around with a petition (check it out on YouTube), urging girls to sign it in an effort to end women's suffrage. No, not suffering, but suffrage (as in the right to vote). A lot of girls bought it hook, line and sinker and heard what they wanted to hear. The same holds true for pollsters and their questions.

#2: Making the election look like an open and shut case could hurt your candidate

The greatest disservice members of either party can do their candidate right now is to tout the poll numbers and elaborate on them ad nauseam. Do this and you risk not having your guy supported at the ballot box, when it counts. Remember: if you convince someone that their vote is not needed because the election is pretty much already won (or lost), they won't show up on Election Day; if they live in a swing state, this could have a huge impact on the overall outcome!

Sources:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107764/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Takes-Lead-Over-McCain-48-42.aspx
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1576
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-uPcthZL2RE