Potential BCS Bowl Selections

It's a shame that money is such a big issue in determining what schools get the best bowl games. We all know Ohio State, Oklahoma, Texas, Nebraska, or any SEC school is going to fill up the stadium wherever they go, but aren't bowls supposed to be about merit and who actually has played better this season.

First, let's go over how the BCS bowls pick their participants.
BCS #1 and #2 play in the national championship game.
The Rose Bowl gets the Pac 10 champ and the Big 10 champ.
The Orange Bowl gets the ACC champ, the Sugar Bowl the SEC champ, and the Fiesta the Big 12 champ.
The bowl(s) that lose their conference champ to the national title game fill that spot next.
This year, the remaining 3 spots are filled with the Sugar picking first, the Orange second and the Fiesta third.

If the top non-AQ school is ranked near the top, they have to be picked for a BCS game, any team in the top 4 in the final BCS standings must get in a BCS game as well, and any at-large picks must be in the top 14.

No one wants the Big East champion, mostly because they Big East has no good teams but also because they typically don't draw big crowds. It's kind of a circular argument as to whether they have bad teams because they have no fans or whether they have no fans because they have no good teams. But the Orange Bowl may choose a West Virginia versus Virginia Tech game to pit the two Virginia school together if they are both available.

Also, the BCS bowl games would love to have Arkansas, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Nebraska, or Oklahoma State because they always have huge crowds and all with be eligible for an at-large bid. Thus, Stanford, who is currently #4 in the BCS, just ahead of Big 10 champ Wisconsin, may well get left out of a big game if they somehow fall to #5. In theory that should not happen but voters may change their mind and flip-flop Wisconsin next week. Stanford could well go to the Rose, Orange, or Fiesta Bowls or none, depending on what people decide and how Oregon and Auburn fare this week.

The Rose Bowl is surely Wisconsin against Oregon (if they are not in the national championship game) or TCU (if Oregon and Auburn are in the national championship) or Stanford (if Oregon and TCU are in the national championship. If the Rose has to replace the Pac 10 champ, it must pick the automatic bid from a non-AQ conerence. The Sugar Bowl is almost sure to be an SEC team (Arkansas or Auburn depending on whether Auburn is in the national championship) versus a Big Ten team (Ohio State) and who can argue with that. I fully expect Connecticut to lose and West Virginia to win the Big East, setting up a VT-WV matchup in the Orange Bowl. But if Auburn is left out of the national championship, the Orange may select Arkansas. The Fiesta Bowl will have the Big 12 champion and may be forced to take whichever automatic bid is left - the Big East champ or Stanford if they are in the BCS top 4.

Personally, I want to see Stanford versus Virginia Tech. I think it would be a shame for a bowl to pick a 10-2 Big 12 team over the 11-1 Cardinal, leaving them out of a major bowl game after such a great season. The only game they lose was to Oregon. Of course, it is also a shame that they couldn't even fill up their stadium last weekend.

So, if all goes as expected in the final week of the regular season:
National Championship: Oregon vs. Auburn
Rose: TCU vs. Wisconsin
Sugar: Arkansas vs. Ohio State
Orange: Virginia Tech/Florida State vs. West Virginia
Fiesta: Oklahoma/Nebraska vs. Stanford