Pre-Election Economic Recovery

Believe the economy is recovering if you want to, but periodically peek out from the wool drawn over your eyes. The pre-election barrage of articles on economic recovery has begun.

Now that we have officially passed into the 2012 election year, we will be hearing all kinds of news about how well the nation is doing. Any economic measurement that goes up will be touted as a sign. A sign of what? A sign shouting the return of prosperity and pleading your vote be cast for more of the same. Again.

According to the New York Times, McDonald's rising dividend is a sign of recovery. Such overstatements--or more accurately, a sign of no such thing--give the wrong impression of the nation's economy.

As a counterpoint, ExxonMobil, the company that we love to hate, raised its dividend every year for the last twenty years. The New York Times said squat about its relationship to national recovery or anything else. Increased dividends simply means a company is producing products that people want and buy, and are doing it effectively enough to return profits to people who invested in it.

We're going to see all kinds of things reported as improving during this election year. All supply-side measures, from office building vacancies to warehouse inventories, will see declines, suggesting things are looking up in those places. Sales of goods, from cars to refrigerators to high-end homes, will be shown to be up and positively true, especially in Washington, D.C. What's growing is government. The economy? Not.

Question all that you read, especially if mainstream media constitutes the source of your information. Take no news at face value. Rather, take a look around where you, Mr., Mrs., or Ms Regular American live. Look around Regular Town, America, and see what you see. See what the media reports as recovery and compare that with what really happens where you are. This year, there will be a golden gloss covering dour accounts of more of the same old economic stagnation.

As the candidates campaign and vie for our votes, recall the sides with which our information sources align. Media, academia, Hollywood, TV, unions, public sector institutions typically align behind the President for his re-election and say how well things are looking up. You and I, our families, our values, personal beliefs, and life work may align elsewhere. Our own experiences may suggest less-than-glowing accounts of local economics. The overall picture can't be good if the sum of the parts is bad.

In the end, let no one tell us the national economy is recovering when we can see for ourselves that it's not.