Preakness 2011: Post Positions and Long Shot Picks to Win

The 2011 Preakness Stakes, the annual second leg of the coveted Triple Crown, will run May 21. The post positions have now been drawn and the odds have been posted by the Pimlico oddsmaker. There are some solid long shots to consider. Speed is a major factor in the mile and 3/16 long Preakness.

The race is the shortest distance of the three Triple Crown races and a horse that has a history of breaking well from the gate and showing speed early is usually the best pick. Most of the public money will fall to Animal Kingdom as the Kentucky Derby winner. Everyone will be pulling for Animal Kingdom to win the second leg of the Triple Crown but the smart money will be on a 10-1 to a 20-1 horse. The following are the post positions and morning line odds on the Preakness.

1. Astrology (M.Smith) 15-1

Astrology has not won since Halloween but the horse has placed second in the three races entered. Astrology has one of the best on his back in Mike Smith and if anyone knows how to make a run with a marginal horse it is Smith. Astrology comes from good bloodlines and the horse has the potential to wreak havoc on some exotics..

2. Norman Asbjornson (J.Pimentel) 20-1

Since breaking his maiden in December 2010 Norman Asbjornson has won just one allowance and placed second in the Gotham Stakes. The descendant of Real Quiet also missed the board in the Wood Memorial. 20-1 is a fair price but the odds on this horse will rise once the bettors arrive on Saturday.

3. King Congie (R.Albarado) 20-1

King Congie has been ridden by almost half the jockeys in the Preakness field. The horse last raced in the Bluegrass and finished third to Brilliant Speed and Twinspired. King Congie won his previous three races all over a mile in length. King Congie may be a good horse to look at in the exotics but he will not cross the finish line first.

4. Flashpoint (C.Velasquez) 20-1

Flashpoint was on track for the Kentucky Derby until a disappointing fourth in the Florida Derby. The horse has won two of the three races he has been entered in and the 20-1 price is inviting. Velasquez has been the only rider for the three year old and they both looked good in their two wins together. Do not draw a line through the horse right away but look for information on race day.

5. Shackleford (J.Castanon) 12-1

I liked Shackleford in the Kentucky Derby and I was looking good until the stretch run. This is a shorter race and Castonon can let the horse take off with less restraint in the Preakness. Look for Shackleford to pick up where he left off in the Derby. He will break fast from the five hole and he should be in the lead heading into the first turn. Shackleford is a definite consideration for a win bet and an absolute must for an exotic bet.

6. Sway Away (G.Gomez) 15-1

Sway Away has an incredible pedigree with Seattle Slew and Afleet Alex in his blood but Sway Away has never lived up to the hype. The 15-1 line is in respect to Sway Away's blood lines more than his race day experience. Tough to make a play on this horse.

7. Midnight Interlude (M.Garcia) 15-1

Midnight Interlude has hit the board in every race he has been entered except for the Kentucky Derby. After beating Mr. Commons and Comma to the Top in the Santa Anita Derby on April 9, Midnight Interlude suffered a disastrous showing in the Kentucky Derby, finishing 16th. Throw the Derby fiasco out and Midnight Interlude may be worth a fleeting thought in regards to an exotic bet but be careful with this horse.

8. Dance City (R.Dominguez) 12-1

Todd Pletcher is hoping to destroy the hopes of the Animal Kingdom camp by bringing in a horse that has not competed since the Arkansas Derby. In the Arkansas Derby Dance City finished second to Archarcharch and Nehro, two horses that will not be in Baltimore this weekend. Dance City may hit the board but I will not have the horse on any of my tickets.

9. Mucho Macho Man (R.Maragh) 6-1

Mucho Macho Man is one of the most experienced horses in the field. He was one of the favorites in the Kentucky Derby as well as a favorite in the Preakness. Mucho Macho Man has not won a race in three attempts and his third place finish looked average. I was let down by this horse in the Derby and I see a slight chance for Mucho Macho Man to hit the board. There will also be a sentimental run at the window for the horse with the passing of Randy "Macho Man" Savage on Friday.

10. Dialed In (J.Leparoux) 9-2

Nick Zito was extremely disappointed with an eighth place finish from Dialed In in the Kentucky Derby. The horse was the popular choice by most experts heading into the Derby and the failure to even hit the board was a crushing blow to one of the best trainers in the barn. Dialed In is going to be a factor in this race but the question is what will happen down the stretch. Consider the horse in one or two exotics but do not go overboard.

11. Animal Kingdom (J.Velazquez) 2-1

Everyone and their mother will be betting on and pulling for Animal Kingdom to complete the second leg of the Triple Crown. The Preakness is the race where legends are made and pretenders are exposed. For betting purposes it is tough to bet a horse that will go off at even money once the betting windows close. Place Animal Kingdom in some exotics but do place a win bet.

12. Isn't He Perfect (E.Prado) 30-1

The late entry into the Preakness is Isn't He Perfect. The answer is maybe he isn't. The horse has run 13 races and has two wins to show for his efforts. The last win came in March against an unimpressive field.

13. Concealed Identity (S.Russell) 30-1

A local horse that has the home track advantage. Concealed Identity has won his last two races over the Pimlico Race Course and this could be a nice advantage. The 30-1 long shot may get bet down on race day by the local bettors but he is still worth a few exotics. It will be a nice story if this horse can show or even place in the Preakness.

14. Mr. Commons (V.Espinoza) 20-1

Mr. Commons ships in for his race from California. Mr. Commons last race was the Santa Anita Derby and when he finished third in that race he was held out of the Kentucky Derby. Don't expect much from the California colt in the Preakness.

Final Picks:

Win: Shackleford

Place: Concealed Identity

Show: Animal Kingdom

Exacta: Shackleford with Concealed Identity and Animal Kingdom

sources:
Preakness 2011: Horse Profiles, Post Positions

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