Predicting 10 Consumer Trends Using Google Trends

Want a quick and easy way to find out what consumers might be interested in buying next shopping season? Try using Google Trends (http://www.google.com/trends), a Web site that tracks Google search terms.

Input a keyword and Google Trends will graph its popularity as a search term for you since 2004. It'll also break down its use by geographic location. Products and store-chain names that are "hot" are searched a lot, so this can be a way to predict future trends.*

Does it work?

To prove that this tool can work as I described, let's look at the popularity of the keywords "American Idol." It's no secret that viewership of this TV program has been dropping over the last two years (some episodes by as much as 10 percent), but was there any way to predict that fewer people would watch it in 2008 than in 2007?

Yes. Simply eyeballing the popularity of the search term "American Idol" in Google Trends shows that the keywords were less popular in 2007 than they were in 2006, thus a downward trend was already in the making. Also, the spike in interest in January of 2008 was less than it was in January 2007, further proof that American Idol would not be as avidly watched this year.

Can this tell us anything about how popular the show will be next year? Based on what is known about the waxing and waning of consumer trends, I would venture to say yes: American Idol will be less popular in 2009, continuing the downward trend that began in 2007.

To further prove my case, let's look at sales of the Nintendo Wii. The game console, which was hot in 2006, was even more popular in 2007, and sales have just kept climbing. But was there any way to forecast this using Google Trends?

Yes. A look at the chart tracking the use of the keyword "Wii" shows that it was "Googled" more often in 2007's pre-Christmas period than it was in 2006's pre-Christmas period, indicating it would sell better in the 2007 holiday period.

What does the Google Trends chart tell us about 2008? Well, the search term "Wii" has been used more often in the first half of this year than it was in the first half of 2007, so the Wii should be a hot gift item this Christmas season as well, especially in the UK, Canada and the United States (where Internet users have searched for it the most).

Here are 10 more predictions:

1. Apple's New iPhone 3G, scheduled to go on sale in July, should sell well. The use of the search terms "iPhone 3G" and "iPhone" has skyrocketed this year, so if the product doesn't disappoint it should fly off the shelves. The keyword "iPhone" is now searched as frequently as "iPod." (Where is interest greatest? Hong Kong and Singapore.)

2. The Toyota Prius and the Tesla electric sports car should continue to be highly sought after by consumers. The use of the terms "hybrid" and "electric car"has jumped this year in Google searches. (No surprise with rising fuel prices.) The use of "Prius" as a search term is at an all-time high and rising (especially in the United States, the Netherlands and Canada). The keyword "Tesla" has been steadily rising in popularity since 2006, and has been used most frequently by Net surfers in Serbia and Montenegro, Croatia and the Czech Republic.

3. Sales of small conventional cars like the MINI Cooper and the Smart Car should hum along as well. The search term "Smart Car" spiked in popularity this year, particularly among Net users in the United States, Canada and the UK. There has been a resurgence in the use of the keyword "Mini Cooper" in searches, and it is now as popular as it was in 2005. Web users in Greece, Italy, the United States and the UK used the search term the most.

4. Motor scooter makers should do a brisk business. "Vespa" is being searched more than ever--particularly in Italy, Indonesia and Austria--and "motor scooter" is popular again as well (especially in the United States, New Zealand and the Netherlands). "Honda scooter" is a hot keyword too, and is a favorite among Net surfers in Italy, India and France.

5. Internet shoe retailer Zappos should do better this year, even while other shoe stores see declining sales. The keyword "Zappos" has been used more and more frequently (mostly in the U.S.) while "Payless Shoes" has been searched less often. "Crocs" (as in clogs) is a less popular search term than it was in 2007. "Manolo Blahnik" saw a spike in usage this year (especially in Greece, Denmark and the Czech Republic)--no doubt a result of the release of "Sex and the City: The Movie"--after a slow slide over the last four years.

6. Uniqlo casual clothing should benefit from stronger consumer demand. Among Internet users, interest in the Japanese retailer has been climbing steadily since 2004, according to Google Trends. Web surfers in Hong Kong, Taiwan and Japan seem to especially dig the store.

7. The Dell XPS notebook computer shouldn't do poorly either. The search terms "Dell XPS" and simply "XPS" have been used more and more since 2004, and while the keywords "Mac Air" spiked in popularity earlier this year, they fell off in frequency quite suddenly, while interest in the Dell XPS has stayed high. Net users in India, Norway and Malaysia have been especially keen on the Dell product line.

8. Organic foods should continue to enjoy rising popularity. The keywords "organic diet," "organic milk," "organic chicken," "organic beef," "organic juice" and "organic eggs" have all been searched just as much, if not more, this year than last, despite the spike in food prices. Web surfers in the United States, Canada, the UK and Australia have "Googled" these search terms most often.

Those who can't afford to buy organic food may grow it this year. There has been a slight resurgence in the use of organic farming-related search terms in 2008. ("Organic farming" was searched most often by Net surfers in India, South Africa and the Philippines.) There has also been an uptick in the "Googling" of the following keywords: "organic seeds" (UK, U.S., New Zealand), "organic pesticides" (U.S., UK, Canada) and "organic fertilizer" (the Philippines, Malaysia, U.S.). There has been a big jump in the use of the search term "growing food" in 2008 (New Zealand, Australia, U.S.)--higher than it has been in the last four years--pointing to a growing interest in home gardening in general (organic or otherwise).

9. People will most likely be shopping more at Wal-mart and Costco. The keyword "Walmart" is being used more and more every year by Internet users in the United States, Canada and Mexico. "Costco" is also popular with Web surfers in the UK.

10. Blackberry Bold/9000 phone will probably continue to see strong sales. Use of the keyword "BlackBerry" has been rising since 2004, and quite steeply these last two years, especially in Canada, the United States and the UK.

*NOTE: There are at least two limitations to using Google Trends to measure the popularity of a product or brand name:

(1) Just because the keyword is "Googled" doesn't mean it's because people necessarily like the thing. For example, "comcast" has been searched more and more over the years, but this may be the result of rising consumer discontent with Comcast Cable rather than positive interest in the company.

(2) If the trademark or brand name isn't unique, the results may be skewed, as you don't know why people were using the search term. For example, Net users may search for "target" to find out more about the megastore discount retailer or they may be doing research on the next most likely terrorist target. Thus, it's hard to know just how popular Target is among Web surfers.

Sources:

http://www.newsday.com/services/newspaper/printedition/monday/partii/ny-ettop5692486may19,0,1053158.column
http://www.google.com/trends