Predicting the 2010 Super Bowl

Every year, millions of fans around the world waste countless hours stressing over their prognostications regarding the Super Bowl. To some, the outcome of the game is as random as a coin flip. But to the majority of football fans, a prediction can only be made after weeks or intense research and analysis.

For over five years I have been promoting a simpler method: technical sports analysis. Instead of delving into the nitty-gritty details of each position match-up or watching hours on end of "expert" opinions, you can use a few easy-to-find football statistics and make a well-informed and surprisingly accurate prediction. The beauty of technical sports analysis is that it takes little effort, minimal time, and provides remarkable results. In 2006 I was able to predict that the Indianapolis Colts would defeat the Chicago Bears in the Super Bowl...in November. In 2008 I predicted that the Pittsburgh Steelers would be the eventual champions...and I made that prediction before the NFL Draft had even happened. This year I chose Green Bay to win the NFC...and they are headed into the playoffs on a hot streak as the NFC's #5 seed.

I won't divulge my methods on how to pick specific teams, but in this article I will be sharing with you a new technique that will help you to impress your friends with an accurate Super Bowl prediction, including the final score. Let's look at how things broke down for the 2008 season:

The first step is to examine the inter-conference games that were played this year. Every year the NFC and AFC meet 64 times, and my research has shown that inter-conference play is a strong indicator of Super Bowl performance. In 2008 the NFC finished with a 29-34 record against the AFC, so the piece of information that we need here is the NFC's winning percentage which is .460 (in other words, they won 46% of their games against the AFC). When Pittsburgh and Arizona met, the over/under was put at 46 points. This number can be found on any number of gambling websites (note - I do not endorse gambling in any way, shape or form) and is indicative of the total number of points that the odds-makers think will be scored in the game.

Since inter-conference play is highly indicative of Super Bowl performance, we will use the following equation:

Inter-conference Winning Percentage X Over/Under = Estimated Points in Super Bowl

So, in the case of the 2009 game, the Arizona Cardinals (the NFC champions) were estimated to score 46% of the 46 points in the Super Bowl, or 21.2 points. Pittsburgh was estimated to score 54% of the points in the game, or 24.8 points.

Estimate: Pittsburgh 25, Arizona 21
Final Score: Pittsburgh 27, Arizona 23

See how easy that was?

Let's look at another game from this decade: the Indianapolis Colts-Chicago Bears Super Bowl from 2007. The NFC won 37.5% of the inter-conference games that year (.375) and the Over/Under for the game was 47 points.

.375 X 47 = 17.6

So the Bears were forecasted to score 17, and give up 29 (62.5% X 47) to the Colts.

Estimate: Indianapolis 29, Chicago 17
Final Score: Indianapolis 29, Chicago 17

Nailed it!

Now of course, teams don't always hit their estimate. Sometimes they don't even come close, like in the Super Bowl for the 1989 championship when Washington was predicted to capture a 26-22 victory over Denver. The final score? 55-10. Way off. But the winner was correctly picked!

In total, this method has correctly predicted 23 out of 34 possible winners correctly. I say 34 because my research goes back to 1967 (Super Bowl II) and there have been eight seasons in which the AFC and NFC tied in inter-conference play. I don't feel that it would be fair to predict a winner in those games, although you might try to infer that since the inter-conference play was so close it would mean that the final margin in the Super Bowl would be close as well. It's hard to say for sure.

This method has also estimated the final margin of each Super Bowl to within two scores in 22 out of 34 cases, and within six points in 14 cases. Considering the element of randomness in the game and the variability of players and coaching staffs, I'd say that's pretty good.

So, in summation, I feel that I can say with confidence that by using this method of analysis you can make an accurate prediction for every Super Bowl, as long as there is inter-conference play inequality and the bookies are giving us Over/Unders.

Oh, by the way - for the 2009 season (2010 Super Bowl), this method is indicating an AFC victory by a final margin of 25-19. Tell your friends!