Predicting the 2011 Preseason AP Top 25

The 20ll preseason AP college football poll is still months from release, but preseason fever has already struck fans and pundits across America. Even with the AP no longer factoring into the BCS rankings, the list -- compiled of a collection of high-profile sports reporters' opinions -- is no less anticipated by college football fanatics in the weeks leading up to the opening kick-off.

In the meantime, there are plenty of other schmos from every corner of the web all posting their own Top 25 lists. Why do they do it? Well, to get internet clicks from the other boobs who like to hunt down their team's standings, of course. Also, coming up with Top 25 lists happens to be a ton of fun.

So it occurred to me that maybe we can actually predict the 2011 college football preseason AP poll by adding together a bunch of these lists and scoring them the way the AP does: 25 points for first place, 24 points for second place, 23 points for third place and so on.

Scientifically sound? No. Incredibly interesting? You bet!

I chose 8 preseason Top 25 lists to add together. They are as follows -- Nationalchamps.net, Dennis Dodd of CBS, Mark Schlabach of ESPN, Andy Staples of Sports Illustrated, Rivals.com, ESPN College Football Live (shortened to CFL), the Orlando Sentinel and my own Top 25.

You can see these lists in their entirety here.

Now, why did I choose these particular lists? Well, mostly because they were the first ones I found and the sources are, for the most part, respected sports organizations such as ESPN, Sports Illustrated and CBS Sports. Rivals and Nationalchamps.net are highly informed websites devoted to college athletics. I included my own list because it's always nice to include a tenderfoot's opinion every now and then. Kind of like a woman who wins her NCAA bracket based on which mascots she likes. And why the Orlando Sentinel? Because their list was on the first page of my Google search and a cursory glance checked the rankings out as a pretty solid pecking order.

So, with that, here are the results of these lists tallied together into what will surely be a mirror image of the coming AP poll. You're welcome.

1. Oklahoma Sooners (199 points)

Highest ranking #1 (Everybody except Dodd)
Lowest ranking #2 (Dodd)

Either Oklahoma is going to be really good in 2011 or all the preseason prognosticators are all just copying each other. You can't really blame them, though, can you? The Sooners are stacked and their once formidable conference is now on redux.

Running back DeMarco Murray will surely be missed. But, with Landry Jones in his third-year starting at quarterback and with the return of All-American candidates Ryan Broyles at wide receiver and Travis Lewis and Jamell Fleming on defense -- look for an experienced, highly talented and well-rested Oklahoma team to edge out the SEC champion for all the marbles.

2. (tie) Alabama Crimson Tide (183 points)

Highest ranking #2 (National Champs, Rivals, Schlabach, CFL)
Lowest ranking #6 (me)

Am I really the only one who sees Bama with a tough row to hoe with the departure of Ingram and McElroy? I guess so. Whatever the case, the early prognosticators like an SEC squad for the number 2 slot as Alabama shares the seat with division rival LSU.

2. (tie) LSU Tigers (183 points)

Highest ranking #1 (Dodd)
Lowest ranking #4 (Schlabach, CFL, Orlando)

I'm all on board with this choice. The Tigers get a grizzly bear of a nonconference opener against Oregon, but should LSU get past the Ducks early, look for a rematch of the 2003 BCS Title game. The Tigers might be the best team in 2011, but the difficult road to the championship could be enough to wear them down against an opponent whose schedule will be considerably lighter than it was before conference realignment.

4. Oregon Ducks (181 points)

Highest ranking #2 (Staples, Orlando)
Lowest ranking #7 (Rivals)

How will the Ducks handle their September scrape with LSU? Well enough to be in the thick of another title hunt. Oregon's got some unfinished business to tend to.

5. Stanford Cardinal (160 points)

Highest ranking #3 (Rivals)
Lowest ranking #9 (Schlabach and me)

What are they feeding those braniacs over in Palo Alto? Whatever it is, keep the gravy train coming, 'cause it has turned them into brutes on the gridiron. And the Stanford football team has finally wrestled the limelight away from the marching band.

6. Ohio State Buckeyes (145 points)

Highest ranking #4 (me)
Lowest ranking #15 (Orlando)

You know, I'm not exactly sure why I ranked Ohio State #4 considering that, with all the suspensions (including head coach Tressel), the Buckeyes have a gargantuan task ahead of them just trying to remain undistracted, let alone win the newly bolstered Big 10 Conference and finish among the nation's elite. Done over, I'd probably put Ohio State right outside the Top 10.

7. Boise State Broncos (140 points)

Highest ranking #5 (Schlabach and CFL)
Lowest ranking #13 (Dodd)

The Broncos departure from the WAC to the Mountain West seems mostly a lateral move, but with one exception -- TCU. And that should be a glorious marriage of BCS Busters. For one season, at least, after which the Horned Frogs bump their butts all the way to the Big East. With the return of Kellen Moore, Boise State has an excellent shot of taking the conference crown in the first season of play.

8. Oklahoma State Cowboys (135 points)

Highest Ranking #6 (Schlabach)
Lowest Ranking #18 (Staples)

The Cowboys return first team All Big 12 quarterback Brandon Weedon along with 9 other offensive starters from a unit that finished second nationally in passing and third in scoring. Combine this with a schedule against which OSU should be favored against all comers -- except the Sooners -- and that's a recipe for the first back-to-back 11 win seasons in school history. The only 11-win seasons in OSU history, for that matter.

9. Texas A&M Aggies (133 points)

Highest ranking #6 (Orlando)
Lowest ranking #13 (Schlabach)

Three Big 12 teams in the preseason Top 9? Hey -- I thought this conference was supposed to be dead! The Aggies knocked out Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas all in the same season last year. Has that ever happened before in school history? I'm asking you because I don't want to have to research that myself. Just drop me a note in the comment box if you figure it out.

10. Florida State Seminoles (130 points)

Highest ranking #6 (CFL)
Lowest ranking #13 (Orlando and me)

How long has it been since the Seminoles were the preseason darling of the Sunshine State? A decade at least. But Jimbo Fisher's transition to head-coaching has been an auspicious one.

Interesting that the Orlando Sentinel joins me in ranking FSU the lowest. Then again, if you look at the Sentinel ballot, you won't see any other Florida schools on the list except for Central Florid U. Hmmmm...

11. Wisconsin Badgers (107 points)

Highest ranking #9 (Orlando)
Lowest ranking #15 (Staples)

The preseason pundits like the Badgers to finish second in the Big 10, behind traditional conference ruler, Ohio State, and ahead of Michigan "Miracle Season" State and the new historical power on the block, Nebraska.

I'm not so sure I agree with them on this...

12. TCU Horned Frogs (106 points)

Highest ranking #5 (me)
Lowest ranking #18 (Schlabach)

Am I crazy for ranking TCU so high while everybody else, well, doesn't? I see no reason for any kind of letdown for the Horned Frogs.

13. (tie) Arkansas Razorbacks (99 points)

Highest ranking #8 (Schlabach)
Lowest ranking #18 (Rivals)

Arkansas loses a Heisman-contender in Ryan Mallett a year early, but he leaves a team whose three losses came to opponents that finished #1, #5 and #10 in 2010. The star quarterback may be gone, but a lot of talent clearly remains in Fayetteville including one of the best defensive lines in the conference.

13. (tie) South Carolina Gamecocks (99 points)

Highest ranking #8 (CFL)
Lowest ranking #19 (me)

The Gamecocks are enjoying the most preseason love in program history. Can you feel the excitement? Can you? What if I showed you a picture of Steve Spurrier with his shirt off, sipping a Coors?

15. Michigan State Spartans (97 points)

The things an 11-2 season can do for a program aching for the glory days of the 1950s. Sparty is jockeying for its best preseason AP start since at least 1988. If only Iowa hadn't removed MSU's glass slipper and let the Alabama Elephant sit on it, we might have witnessed State's first Top 10 preseason ranking since 1979.

Highest ranking #8 (Orlando)
Lowest ranking #23 (me)

16. Nebraska Cornhuskers (93 points)

Highest ranking #10 (me)
Lowest ranking #19 (National Champs and Schlabach)

The Huskers are dreadfully undervalued heading into 2011, in my opinion. The Pelini brothers will mastermind another Top 10 defense. And, if Tim Beck is the answer to what ails Nebraska on the offensive side -- look out Big 10.

17. Auburn Tigers (82 points)

Highest ranking #6 (Rivals)
Lowest ranking #24 (Orlando)

Did everybody forget who just went 14-0 and won the 2010 BCS Championship? That's right, it was Cam Newton and he'll no longer be suiting up at Jordan-Hare Stadium on fall Saturdays. While I agree there's no way Auburn repeats as BCS champions without their embattled superstar quarterback, starting outside the Top 15 seams a little much. Doesn't it?

18. (tie) Virginia Tech Hokies (55 points)

Highest ranking #16 (Rivals)
Lowest ranking UR (Orlando)

How crucial is the loss of one player? Considering Tyrod Taylor's career in Blacksburg spanned fours seasons allowing the dual-threat to rack up over 9,000 total yards, the answers is -- pretty darn crucial. Just ask Florida and Texas how life can be post super star quarterback. Number 18 is probably the exact right spot for Tech to start 2011.

18. (tie) Notre Dame Fighting Irish (55 points)

Highest ranking #14 (Schlabach)
Lowest ranking #24 (Staples)

Brian Kelly appears to have Notre Dame galloping back in the right direction. The Irish faithful hope the new coach can continue the momentum started at the end of last season as college football's most storied program hopes for just the program's second Top 10 finish in 18 years.

20. Missouri Tigers (47 points)

Highest ranking #13 (Staples)
Lowest ranking UR (Dodd)

As Blaine Gabbert makes waves in the NFL combines, his alma mater quietly assumes a spot in the preseason beauty contest. A testament to the progress made in Gary Pinkel's decade-long stint in Columbia. Missouri has now seen itself ranked at some point during the season in seven of the last 8 years. 2011 will make it 8 for 9. That's a streak the school hasn't seen since the 1970s.

21. Mississippi State Bulldogs (41 points)

Highest ranking #16 (National Champs)
Lowest ranking UR (me)

Mississippi State rides into the preseason discussion on the strength of a 9-4 record in 2010 that featured taking Auburn to the wire and a 52-14 thrashing of Michigan in the Gator Bowl. All this and the Bulldogs still only finished FIFTH in their division. Holy Moley.

Kudos for competing well in a bear of a conference, but I wouldn't hold my breath for another nine wins.

22. Florida Gators (27 points)

Highest ranking #15 (me)
Lowest ranking UR (Rivals, Staples, Orlando)

Quarterback John Brantley withered in the formidable shadow cast by his predecessor. Still, I think Florida has what it takes to make it back to the SEC Championship. Apparently I'm alone in this sentiment.

23. West Virginia Mountaineers (22 points)

Highest ranking #20 (Staples and me)
Lowest ranking UR (National Champs, Dodd)

Any year that sees UCONN win the Big East in football has to be a down year for that conference. Despite four losses last year (including 1 in overtime to the Huskies), West Virginia was its usual salty self going toe-to-toe against LSU in one of those losses. I like the Mountaineers to return to the top of the Big East heap in 2011.

24. Arizona State Sun Devils (20 points)

Highest ranking #21 (Schlabach)
Lowest ranking UR (Orlando and me)

Have you seen the bitchin' new ASU uniforms? You know, the ones with the pitchfork on the side of the helmet? Maybe that's what has the rest of the pundits frothing over the Sun Devils. But I'm with Orlando on this one. The Sun Devils went 6-6 in 2010. Sure there were some moral victories to point to, like the 1-point losses to Wisconsin and USC or the 4- point deficit to Stanford. But with the expansion to 12 teams for 2011, shit's getting tougher in PAC-12 country. Not easier.

25. (tie) Georgia Bulldogs (18 points)

Highest ranking #18 (Orlando)
Lowest ranking UR (National Champs, Rivals, Schlabach, CFL and me)

Bulldogs make the list thanks mostly to the Sentinel's crazy outlier. Georgia pretty much stank in 2010. They'll probably stink again this year.

25. (tie) Texas Longhorns (18 points)

Highest Ranking #20 (CFL)
Lowest Ranking UR (Staples and Orlando)

Looks like, even with a 5-7 showing for 2010, the prognosticators love them some Longhorns. I'll admit that I'm guilty here, too. There's just too much talent in Austin to have back-to-back disastrous seasons.

Still, the departure of defensive coordinator Will Muschamp to Gainsville leaves a lot of uncertainty. The defense wasn't what ailed the Longhorns last year. I expect marked improvement on the offensive side for 2011 and only a slight drop on defense. But, if the offense remains in a funk, the eyes of Texas may want to avert their collective gazes again this season.

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