Predictions for the 2009-2010 NFL Season

For NFL fans, the time between the first week in February and that first week in September feel like an eternity. Sure there are the news stories about player signings, holdouts, and arrests. There is the major event in April that we call the draft. But there aren't any real snaps, tackles, or touchdowns in this dead time. Fortunately, another season is creeping up and you just can't wait for kickoff. In many cases, fans will pay full ticket price just to watch a preseason game where their favorite players are only in for a series or two.

Training camps will open soon, and for many fans, this is the two minute warning of the offseason. Soon players will begin two-a-day practices and more rigorous workouts. Soon, teams will start game planning for the upcoming season and setting goals. These goals may be to win 8 games. They may want to win their division, or maybe just make the playoffs. But for some, the goal is nothing less than a Super Bowl ring and the chance to hoist the Lombardi trophy and know that you are the best. Which teams will succeed? Which will fail? I looked at the upcoming schedule and for each game picked a winner based on how the team did last year and changes that were made in the offseason. Here is a brief look at how the season plays out in my simulation.

The AFC East saw a change last season when the Dolphins won over the Patriots. While the Pats managed to win 11 games without Tom Brady, the fell short of the playoffs for the first time in years. This year, that division will be a little different. The Bills brought the spotlight on them with the surprising signing of Terrell Owens. However, a player with an ego that big isn't going to be enough to get them over the hump when the offensive line can't keep a quarterback upright. Don't get me wrong, I like Trent Edwards, but the man is going to be on crutches at some point this season with a line like that. The Dolphins had a lot of success with the Wildcat offense last year, but teams will figure it out this season, so don't expect another playoff berth for Miami. The Jets will be starting a rookie quarterback or one whom the fans booed just two years ago to the extent that they gambled on a 39 year old gun slinger last year. A new head coach could mean a winning record, but playoffs are a few years off for the Jets. Finally, the Patriots. Tom Brady will probably start slow. He might struggle to put up the numbers of two seasons ago, so the Patriots won't repeat their 16-0 season. However, 14 wins is easily doable with a decent schedule.

Predictions:
Patriots 14-2
Dolphins 8-8
Bills 5-11
Jets 3-13

The AFC North contains the defending Super Bowl Champs. The Bengals will turn things around this year with a healthy Carson Palmer. If Palmer can find anyone to throw to without TJ Houshmandzadeh in town, their offense will boom. There are a lot of defensive struggles here, so they probably aren't playoff bound, but they will win a few games this season against a lackluster schedule. The Browns have a lot of problems. Two years ago they looked like they were on the right path and many predicted them to win the division last year. However, they fell far short of that, picking in the top 5 in the draft. Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson are in a competition to see who will lead a group that is still a few years from competitive. The Ravens will have a little bit of a fall off from last year, especially if leading receiver Derick Mason stays retired. If Joe Flaco avoids a sophomore slump, 10 wins isn't out of the question. The Steelers return almost all of their players from their Super Bowl winning season. If their line can pull together like they did late last season and protect Roethlisberger, the running backs (Parker and Mendenhall) will make the offense effective and the defense should continue to dominate. An easy schedule makes a playoff berth almost a lock for the Steelers.

Predictions:
Steelers 14-2
Ravens 10-6
Bengals 4-12
Browns 2-14

The AFC South saw a new leader last year after the Colts had dominated for years. The Titans wrapped up a great season before faltering in the playoffs. Interestingly enough, the division will be one of the tightest in the league and could easily see two wild-card teams reach the playoffs along with the division winner. The Colts have been the model of consistency in recent years, but this offseason, they not only lost their Hall of Fame receiver, Marvin Harrison, but also, their head coach and a couple of assistants that really helped to build this team. In the end, they have some kinks to work out. A soft schedule outside of their division means that many of these teams could fare very well in their hunt for the playoffs. The Jaguars had lots of trouble last year. This was mostly due to injuries on the line and a receiving corp that made some college teams look good. This year, they drafted two offensive lineman and brought in a veteran receiver in the hopes that they can overcome their two biggest weaknesses from last year. The Texans had one of the best offenses in the league last year. Their defense showed potential, but still had too many holes. In the end, these holes cost them a shot at their first ever playoff appearance. Through the draft and free agency, they have improved a lot, so this could be the year that the franchise makes its first postseason appearance. The Titans had a great running attack last year, in large part due to rookie Chris Johnson. This season, teams will key on Johnson more and focus on stopping the run. If they do succeed in stopping it, Kerry Collins will have to make some plays with his arm or else the team could fall back on Vince Young. The Titans have plenty of weapons, but they could be looking at a huge hole where Albert Haynesworth was last year.

Predictions
Colts 15-1
Texans 11-5
Titans 11-5
Jaguars 1-15

The AFC West was one of the weirdest conferences last year with the team that won it doing so in week 17 with an 8-8 record. Over the off season, we saw two teams trade for a new starting quarterback, three new head coaches hired (I say three new here, because this will be Tom Cable's first full season), and a large number of signings and cuts. Many have this division up in the air, but there are signs that point to a definite winner. The Broncos will have a tough time this year after losing a pro-bowl quarterback in a trade to Chicago. Kyle Orton and Chris Simms both have a chance to thrive in the Mile High city with a great receiving corp, a good backfield, and tough offensive line. However, unless some of the defenders they picked up step the defense up, it is going to be a long year in Denver. The Chargers saw the season that was supposed to bring them a title start horribly. Injuries tore the team apart and left the team in shambles. Say what you want about Phillip Rivers, but he pulled his troops together and managed to win a playoff berth. He then led his team to victories in the playoffs before meeting the red-hot Steelers. This year they return almost all of their starters from last year and look to have a stronger season than last. In Kansas City, Matt Cassell is expected to start as quarterback for the Chiefs. Kansas City has a lot of holes to fill, but made good progress toward a rebuild this off season. Oakland will be a year older and a year closer to being competitive, although, they have drafted high every year since they lost the Super Bowl to Tampa. JaMarcus Russell finally has some mentoring from Jeff Garcia, but Garcia may have thoughts of starting in mind.

Predictions
Chargers 12-4
Chiefs 7-9
Broncos 4-12
Raiders 4-12

If the AFC South is the toughest division in the league, it is only because the NFC East has beat each other up so bad. This division features 4 teams with playoff potential. The Cowboys hope the with the TO show gone Romo and friends will be able to put together a team that will take Dallas back to the big game. However, unless Roy Williams (the receiver) steps up and plays to his potential, this could be a long year for Cowboys fans. For years Donovan McNabb has complained about not having play makers around him on offense. This year he might have just what he needs. If the Eagles can overcome the loss of their defensive coordinator (he has been given leave to battle cancer and our prayers are with him) they will be a contender. The Giants are only one season removed from shocking the world by stopping the unstoppable force and winning the Super Bowl. However, they are now without the services of their best receiver and their second best running back. They may have some struggles in trying to return to the big game. The Redskins just signed the biggest defensive free agent of the offseason and will look to play like they did during their big win streak last year and not like they did as they then squandered away the division. Maybe if they fail to finish atop their division, they will finally figure out that you can't buy a title by signing big name free agents.

Predictions
Eagles 14-2
Giants 13-3
Cowboys 10-6
Redskins 5-11

The NFC North is a division that will potentially see three teams starting a different quarterback than they did last year. The Bears made a blockbuster trade to land Pro-Bowl quarterback Jay Cutler from Denver. They gave up a lot, but considering how past first round quarterback picks have turned out (i.e. Rex Grossman), they probably got a bargain. Cutler will have a fair line in front of him, a solid back behind him, and some underrated receivers to throw to. We will definitely see this season whether it was the Broncos receivers and line that made Cutler look good, or whether it was Cutler making them look good. The Lions are coming off a record setting 0-16 season. They have nowhere to go but up. Rookie Matt Stafford is hoping to win the starting job, but Daunte Culpepper is working hard to keep what he feels is rightfully his. Maybe the Lions will be back in a few years, but as you've probably hear it said, the Lions have been rebuilding since the mid 50s. Two years ago the Packers were minutes away from a Super Bowl against the Patriots. Now they are short a Hall of Fame quarterback (more on him in a minute) and will enter the season with Aaron Rogers leading the team. The Packers really struggled to find themselves last year, but with a defensive makeover, they hope to be back on top of this division soon. The Vikings are itching for September to get here. They have perhaps the best running back in the league, a new dynamic weapon in Percy Harvin, a good defense, and some new blood at quarterback. At this time this blood isn't Brett Favre, but it is Sage Rosefels, who will push Tavaris Jackson to be what the Vikings originally hoped he would be. The big question is whether Favre stays retired or comes in and tries to make yet another comeback.

Prediction
Vikings 13-3
Bears 13-3
Packers 10-6
Lions 2-14

The NFC South has been one of the most interesting divisions since the realignment. Prior to last season, the team who had finished last the year before won the division the following season. Last year the trend was broken, but barely as the teams who finished 3 and 4 in 2007 finished 1 and 2, respectively. This division is loaded with talent and is open to any team winning on any given week. The Buccaneers crumbled at the end of last season which sent head coach Jon Gruden packing. They have gone into a quick rebuilding mode and are trying to get new talent in and old talent out ask quickly as possible. The biggest concern is quarterback where any of 3 players could start opening week (Luke McCown, Byron Leftwich, and rookie Josh Freeman). The Falcons were hot last year as rookie Matt Ryan and free agent pickup Michael Turner led the team to a playoff berth. The Falcons would love to pick up where they left off, but it may be an uphill battle this year. The Panthers looked great at the end of last year with their version of "Thunder and Lightning". They looked great, that is, until their matchup with Arizona in the playoffs. After that fiasco, the team did a little looking and decided they were good enough where they were. The biggest challenge for them will be getting Julius Peppers on the field come September. The Saints were one of the leagues best offenses last year, but the defense was beyond awful. Drew Brees passed for over 5,000 yards and they still fell short of a winning record. This season will see the Saints try new approaches, but if the defense isn't fixed, they will have a lot of shortcomings.

Predictions
Panthers 10-6
Saints 10-6
Falcons 8-8
Buccaneers 1-15

The NFC West saw only one team with a winning record last year. The teams in this division had the fewest wins of any division in the league last season. The one bright spot was that the Cardinals despite an uninspiring 9-7 record were in the Super Bowl at the end of the season. The 49ers saw the leadership change mid-season. The team retained interim coach Mike Singletary. He is just hoping to not get caught with his pants around his ankles this year, literally. If the 49ers can pick a quarterback and improve just a little on last year, they could be looking at a winning record. The Cardinals will try to repeat their performance from last year and avoid the "Super Bowl Loser's Curse". They do have the best set of wide receivers in the league, and an improved running attack. If their defense steps up, they could be looking at another post season appearance. The Rams have been trying to find that missing piece since they had all their success in the late 90s and early 2000s. They will have a lot of struggles again this year. The Seahawks struggled last year, but when you are starting a quarterback and two guys you signed on Wednesday of that week at wide receiver as well as a quarterback who was third string on his old team, you know you have problems. At one point Seattle's number 1 receiver was the number 7 guy on their depth chart. If Hasselbeck and the receivers are healthy this year, things will be a little different in Seattle.

Predictions
Cardinals 9-7
Seahawks 8-8
49ers 4-12
Rams 1-16

If things turn out like I am predicting, the wild card games will be the Titans at the Steelers and the Texans at the Chargers in the AFC. The NFC matchups will send the Giants to Carolina and the Bears to Arizona. The Steelers and Chargers will both win their respective games as will the Panthers and Bears.

The divisional round will see the Colts face the Chargers in the playoffs for the third straight year. This will be a close game but finally the Colts will fall to the Chargers for the third straight year. Meanwhile the Steelers will travel to New England where they will lose on a last second field goal miss. In the NFC, the Vikings will host the Panthers who will stun a Vikings team that was already looking ahead to February. The Bears will give the Eagles a tough match, but in the end, the Eagles will prove to have too many weapons.

In the Conference round, fans will enjoy the Chargers traveling to New England to play in a blizzard. This will be a low scoring affair until Darren Sproles breaks an 83 yard punt return to give the Chargers the lead. They will go on to win in a close game 27-23 when Randy Moss drops a Hail Mary pass as time expires. The NFC matchup will be equally as thrilling when the Eagles trailing late in the 4th engineer a drive that allows Brian Westbrook to score the go ahead point with 6 seconds left.

In the Super Bowl, Phillip Rivers will face Donovan McNabb. The game begins slow with the defenses making all the plays, but just before halftime, the Eagles draw first blood. In the second half the teams exchange scores twice. However, in the end, the Chargers pull it out, 24-19 to allow Phillip Rivers to become the third quarterback from his draft class to win the Super Bowl.

Of course, these are just predictions and there is no way to be certain how things will really play out, except to tune in when the season kicks off and watch each weekend until they give out the Lombardi Trophy.