Predictions and Analysis of the Upcoming AFC Championship Game

After 19 weeks of football, we're down to only four teams. The NFC has the Packers and the Giants. The AFC has the Patriots and the Chargers.

The Patriots and the Chargers both took very different paths to get to the AFC Championship game. The New England Patriots, led by Bill Belichick, have been the epitome of football perfection: a perfect 16-0 season, offensive records broken in bunches and the look and attitude of what will probably be remember as one of the greatest teams in NFL history.

The Chargers took a different route. After losing head coach Marty Schottenheimer and offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, the Chargers started the season on a freefall, losing three out of their first four games. New head coach Norv Turner had every finger on the West Coast pointed squarely at him, and word was that the San Diego Chargers were going to be the most disappointing team in the NFL this season. While the team couldn't catch a lot of momentum through the season, alternating wins and losses through the middle of their season, they finally caught fire with six games left in the season, winning all of them and clinching the AFC West.

Now the Chargers, winners of their last 8 games are looking do the impossible, beat the Patriots.

Here is a position-by-position analysis of what we can expect this coming Sunday in Foxborough.

Quarterback:

You can argue for Peyton Manning if you want, but Tom Brady is clearly the best quarterback in the league right now. He's got the records, the talent, the cool and the poise. There is none better than Brady. On San Diego's side of the ball, they have Philip Rivers. Rivers has been very good through the playoffs so far, but his lack of experience and still-improving play just can't compare to Tom Brady. If New England gets ahead, they'll be blitzing Rivers all day, and that's something that he may not be able to handle. Rivers is still dealing with an ankle injury. If he can't go, journeyman Billy Volek will be starting in his place. The absence of Rivers could be a very early kiss of death for the Chargers.

Advantage: Patriots

Running Backs:

Also currently on the mend is LaDanian Tomlinson. The all-world back couldn't get through much more than the first half last week against the Colts and is considered questionable for this Sunday's game. When healthy, LT is an absolute beast: gobbling up passes, blocking and breaking huge plays with an array of moves and speed, but if he can't play, or is playing on a bad leg, Michael Turner may be asked to fill in LT's shoes. Michael Turner will be the league's most desired free agent running back this off-season. Like he proved against the Colts last week, he can be an excellent every-down running back. He can block, catch and make big plays. In his stead, Darren Sproles, could also come in and make some big plays. He scored the clincher against the Colts on a screen pass and has had a knack for making big plays his entire career. Laurence Maroney leads the Patriots running game. Until a few weeks ago, he looked to be a forgotten player in the Patriots pass-heavy offense. He has since picked up his game and has managed to make an impact in the last 4 weeks. Kevin Faulk adds an excellent complement to the offense as well. The do-everything journeyman can catch, run and block as good as anyone has over the last 10 years. It's close between these two, but even if LT doesn't play, I still think the Chargers will have the best RB on the field in Turner.

Advantage: Chargers

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends:

This one isn't even close. The Patriots are better stocked at wide receiver and tight end than they have ever been in the Tom Brady era, and may have the best group in the league. Randy Moss set a new record for touchdown catches in the regular season with 23. Wes Welker broke the team record for receptions with 112. Donte Stallworth and TE Ben Watson fill out the group with size and speed. The Chargers are led by all-pro Antonio Gates at tight end and newly acquired wide receiver Chris Chambers. Chambers has been putting up big numbers, finally giving Philip Rivers a downfield threat at the wide receiver position. 2nd-year man Vincent Jackson has finally found a solid role that he can excel at as a 2nd receiver. But with Gates possibly missing the game, and questions looming at quarterback, the Chargers receivers may not get many opportunities to shine.

Advantage: Patriots

Offensive Line:

This is really a dead heat. The Patriots line, led by Matt Light, did a great job of making sure that Tom Brady stayed upright all season. The Chargers line, led by Mike Goff and Kris Dielman, while not as effective pass blocking, holds an advantage in making holes for their running backs. I'll take the Patriots line, because I've never seen a quarterback have so much time to throw.

Advantage: Patriots

Defensive Line/Linebackers:

It's hard to beat the San Diego Chargers front 7. Shawn Merriman is the premiere linebacker in the NFL and should harass Tom Brady all day. Add in run-stopping Jamal Williams and OLB Shaun Philips and you have a fast, strong group that forced the most turnovers in the league in the regular season. They'll get to Brady, probably better than any other team this season, and they should make Laurence Maroney's day very long out of the backfield. For the Patriots, the big name to know is Adalius Thomas. The former Baltimore Raven has been a beast this season and leads an aging New England linebacking crew. Mike Vrabel and Tedy Bruschi can get all the praise they want, but they're still slow and old. Teams have slowly been learning that the Patriots can be beat on the ground, and their crew of senior citizen linebackers is the main cause. The New England D-line is stacked with top draft picks, led in the middle by Vincent Wilfork. It's a close call, but I love San Diego's speed.

Advantage: Chargers

Defensive Backs:

Asante Samuel and Rodney Harrison lead a very good New England Patriot defensive backfield. Harrison may have lost a step with age, but Samuel more than makes it up. Teams play from behind against New England, meaning they throw a lot. Harrison and Samuel, along with Ellis Hobbs do an adequate, if not overly impressive, job slowing down the oppositions passing game. Quentin Jammer and Antonio Cromartie lead the San Diego backfield at cornerback. This is an opportunistic defensive that lead the league in turnovers. Cromartie is starting to look like the second coming of Deion Sanders and Jammer has been a staple in the Charger backfield since he was drafted. Marlon McCree also adds great support deep.

Advantage: Chargers

Special Teams:

With any combination of Cromartie, Turner and Darren Sproles, the Chargers kick returners are an impressive, speedy bunch. Mike Scifres may be the best punter in the league. Judgment still awaits Nate Kaeding who needs to make a big kick in the playoffs to erase some important big misses in his past. Hobbs and Welker both have the ability to break any kick for a touchdown. I haven't seen enough of Stephen Gostkowski to sell me on him. And let's be honest, it's the Patriots, who cares about punter Chris Hanson?

Advantage: Patriots

Coaching:

I love the fire and enthusiasm that Norv Turner has brought to the Chargers, but he's not Bill Belichick. Belichick is the greatest coach of his generation, and maybe of all time. He can motivate his players better than any other coach in history. It's a clear advantage.

Advantage: Patriots

Prediction:

At full health, I'd say that the Chargers would have a decent shot at the Patriots. They have the longest winning streak in the league, the best running back in the league and a defense that can steal the ball away. However, with Rivers, LT and Gates hobbling, there just isn't enough left in the tank to pull out the upset.

Patriots 38, Chargers 21