Predictions for the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary

The race for the 2008 Republican and Democratic Presidential nominations is finally about to get serious. After more than a year of campaigning, the first caucus and primary are now only a month away. This is welcome news, since it feels like they started this race when Reagan was still President. And, as always, there will be some surprises.

The Iowa Caucus is now set for Jan. 3, 2008, with the New Hampshire Primary following a few days later on January 8^th. There have been approximately eleven thousand debates in the last year, and the polls have swung back and forth almost as much as the stock market. I will now release my picks for the winners and losers of both races for both parties. Feel free to use this for wagering, unless gambling is prohibited by either your religious beliefs or state law.

First the Democrats:

Iowa

1. John Edwards. He will benefit from the recent sniping between Hillary and Obama, as it gives Iowans the excuse not to vote for either of them that they've been looking for. Edwards has kept a low profile lately, an admirable trait in a politician, and that helps him as well.

2. Barack Obama. Coming in second to Clinton was expected; losing to Edwards was not. All the fundraising in the world can't fix this.

3. Hillary Clinton. The favorite going into Iowa never wins. Just ask Howard Dean.

4. Bill Richardson. An impressive late surge puts him fourth.

5. Everybody Else

New Hampshire

1. John Edwards. A much closer win, but a win nonetheless. As John Kerry proved, win the first one and people will jump on the bandwagon. Fundraising soars.

2. Hillary Clinton. The problem with being the front-runner for so long is that you have nowhere to go but down.

3. Barack Obama. Starts talks with Edwards about the VP slot.

4. Everybody Else

The Republicans:

Iowa

1. Ron Paul. All of that grassroots, Internet hype was for real. He's the anti-Howard Dean.

2. Rudy Giuliani. A crushing loss, but New Hampshire's next.

3. Mitt Romney. Also counting heavily on New Hampshire.

4. Fred Thompson. His race is over before it starts. So much for being the next Ronald Reagan.

5. John McCain. One last hurrah before dropping out the next day.

6. Everybody Else

New Hampshire

1. Ron Paul. Barely ekes out a two-point win, but it's enough to throw the whole party into (more) chaos.

2. Rudy Giuliani. In very big trouble with the Southern states up next.

3. Mitt Romney. Another third-place finish, the only consistency he's shown all year.

4. Fred Thompson. Another sad showing. Announces that he is returning to Law and Order, taking the Evangelical vote with him.

5. Everybody Else

Given this scenario, and with recent history as support, the nominees will be John Edwards and Ron Paul. Edwards chooses Barack Obama as his running mate, a safe and expected pick. Ron Paul, giving in to pressure at the convention, picks Jeb Bush as his VP. This choice makes the final electoral vote appear much closer than it really is, with Paul winning his home state of Texas and Jeb "delivering" Florida. The only other states the GOP wins are Utah and Idaho, and the 28-year era of a Clinton or a Bush in the White House comes to an end.