Predictions for the Men's NCAA Basketball Tournament
In the interest of full disclosure, I have won 3 out of 5 of the last office pools. I am not sure if I am that good or the people at work should take an updated company drug test. I credit my success on simply knowing the statistics. In the 23 years of the NCAA using 64 teams, the following are key points to keep in mind when completing your bracket:
* The #1 seed has NEVER lost to a #16 seed (in 92 games). Therefore, do not be a hero; always go with the top seed.
* The #2 seed has a 96% win rate vs. the #15. Always go with the #2 - no matter how much your spouse likes the other team's uniforms or mascots
* The #3 seed has a 84% win rate vs. the #14. With 84% closer to 75% than 100%, choose one upset.
* The #4 seed has a 80% win rate vs. the #13. Choose one upset.
* The #5 seed has a 68% win rate vs. the #12. Choose one upset.
* The #6 seed has a 68% win rate vs. the #11. Choose one upset.
* The #7 seed has a 62% win rate vs. the #10. Choose two upsets here, with a 62% win rate closer to 50%.
* The #8 seed has a 46% win rate vs. the #9. Choose two upsets.
With that out of the way, the following are my predictions by region:
The East
First round:
* North Carolina (#1) defeats either Coppin State or Mount St. Mary's (#16 pending the play in game)
* Arkansas (#9) defeats Indiana (#8)
* Notre Dame (#5) defeats George Mason (#12)
* Washington State (#4) defeats Winthrop (#13)
* Saint Joseph's (#11) defeats Oklahoma (#6)
* Louisville (#3) defeats Boise State (#14)
* Butler (#7) defeats South Alabama (#10)
* Tennessee (#2) defeats American (#15)
Second round:
* North Carolina defeats Arkansas
* Washington State defeats Notre Dame
* Louisville defeats Saint Joseph's
* Tennessee defeats Butler
Regional Semi:
* North Carolina defeats Washington State
* Louisville defeats Tennessee
National Semi:
* North Carolina defeats Louisville
The Midwest
First round:
* Kansas (#1) defeats Portland State (#16)
* Kent State (#9) defeats UNLV (#8)
* Clemson (#5) defeats Villanova (#12)
* Vanderbilt (#4) defeats Siena (#13)
* Southern Cal (#6) defeats Kansas State (#11)
* Wisconsin (#3) defeats Cal State Fullerton (#14)
* Davidson (#10) defeats Gonzaga (#7)
* Georgetown (#2) defeats UMBC (#15)
Second round:
* Kansas defeats Kent State
* Clemson defeats Vanderbilt
* Wisconsin defeats USC
* Georgetown defeats Davidson
Regional Semi:
* Kansas defeats Clemson
* Georgetown defeats Wisconsin
National Semi:
* Georgetown defeats Kansas
The South
First round:
* Memphis (#1) defeats Texas-Arlington (#16)
* Mississippi State (#8) defeats Oregon (#9)
* Michigan State (#5) defeats Temple (#12)
* Pittsburgh (#4) defeats Oral Roberts (#13)
* Marquette (#6) defeats Kentucky (#11)
* Stanford (#3) defeats Cornell (#14)
* Miami (#7) defeats Saint Mary's (#10)
* Texas (#2) defeats Austin Peay (#15)
Second round:
* Memphis defeats Mississippi State
* Pittsburgh defeats Michigan State
* Stanford defeats Marquette
* Texas defeats Miami
Regional Semi:
* Pittsburgh defeats Memphis
* Texas defeats Stanford
National Semi:
* Texas defeats Pittsburgh
The West
First round:
* UCLA (#1) defeats Mississippi Valley State (#16)
* BYU (#8) defeats Texas A&M (#9)
* Western Kentucky (#12) defeats Drake (#5)
* San Diego (#13) defeats Connecticut (#4)
* Purdue (#6) defeats Oklahoma (#11)
* Xavier (#3) defeats Georgia (#14)
* West Virginia (#7) defeats Arizona (#10)
* Duke (#2) defeats Belmont (#15)
Second round:
* UCLA defeats BYU
* Western Kentucky defeats San Diego
* Xavier defeats Purdue
* West Virginia defeats Duke
Regional Semi:
* UCLA defeats Western Kentucky
* Xavier defeats West Virginia
National Semi:
* UCLA defeats Xavier
Final Four
Georgetown defeats North Carolina
UCLA defeats Texas
Championship
UCLA defeats Georgetown
Published by Chet Harlow
I had a lifetime ambition to write, which consistently went unacted upon. Now it's payback time! View profile
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12 Comments
Post a Commentamen unc boy
tar heels are winning it all
t*bone - thank you very much for the comment....that's awesome! I am glad I was able to help. I will definitely be rooting for UCLA to pull it out, and I think they will. That should clinch it for you. And yes, some teams always squeak by and make you scratch your head - but that is the beauty of the tournament. As for Davidson, a colleague who is the beat writer for Indiana University picked them for the final four - and he almost persuaded me to take them for a few games. Oh well... BTW, I will write another article next year with more detailed statistical analysis of the later rounds. Until then, good luck and thanks for reading! -Chet
i'm currently holding first place in my office's march madness pool... all thanks to your advice. :)
there were a few teams that shined through that no one could have predicted... DAVIDSON?!!?
anyhow, thanks for the steller article. i'll be using your common sense/probability approach again next year.
THOSE TARHEELS ARE ON A ROLL WITH THOSE GUYS STEPPING UP AND GETTING THE JOB DONE.....THEY LOOK LIKE AND SCORING LIKE THEY ARE IN THE NBA....JUST WISH THEY HAD A CHANCE TO BEAT DUKE AGAIN THIS YEAR
Georgetown.....eeekkkk..... good thing i picked them losing to Wisconsin anyway :)
Superb analysis Chet. :)
alright. i like the pitt over memphas... my final four includes louisville beating UNC in the elite 8. g-town is fine. texas pitt game is a toss up in my opinion but since its in Houston you may have made the right call. W.V over Xavier than over UCLA? I'm liking Joe Alexander and the Mountaneers as a whole. As for first round upsets i like drake. i like temple. i like Kansas state over USC. St Joes over Sooners. Nova over Clemson. Winthrope over Wash St. Marquette over Stanford. and Butler over Tennessee? I dont know. i might be completely off but i leaves my final four at Louisville against G-town and Texas against W.V (I know... no 1 seeds and only big east AND a 7 seed but i dont see any one that can beat W.V) The Championship game I have is Texas vs G-town with texas on top just because it is in San Antonio. Thanks for some of your help though.
Dr. Brown...typo on my part...thank you very much for the correction. However, Purdue still wins that game. :)
Chet,
Purdue plays Baylor (6/11) in the West. Go with Baylor then Xavier.