Predictions: Undeclared Voters Could Have Effect on New Hampshire Primary

New Hampshire is a cool state. It has more registered "undeclared" voters then it has registered Republicans or Democrats. An undeclared voter is an independent, who can vote in either primary, just not in both. It is one of only two states which has neither a sales tax nor an income tax. It's motto is "live free or die." They tend to vote for what they believe. They don't care whether their candidate has a chance of winning. They vote for, and endorse, for what they believe. Isn't that cool?

Conway, New Hampshire is a small city not far from the Maine border and near the bottom of Mount Washington. The Conway Sun has endorsed New Mexico's governor, Bill Richardson, for President. "Richardson has heavyweight credentials for a heavyweight job; Obama, Edwards and Clinton, by comparison, have barely found their way into the ring."

Concord is the capital of New Hampshire. Their paper, the Concord Monitor, endorsed Republican John McCain. "Earlier in the campaign, when McCain was being counted out, a consultant might have urged a makeover: Lose the moral compass on torture and immigration, ditch the vision for a turnaround in Iraq. Not a chance. John McCain held on to his principles and defended them with dignity. New Hampshire residents who vote in the Republican primary should reward that integrity with their votes."

In what may seem like irony to many of us outside of New Hampshire, the Monitor also endorsed Hilary Clinton on the Democratic side, saying that her experiences as first lady and as senator means she'll be able to jump right into the business of being president instead of having to figure out how to get things done in Washington. The paper also liked Obama, Biden and Edwards, but endorsed Clinton. The Monitor particularly likes her gender. "The election of America's first female president will show more than half the population - including millions of young girls - that their futures are not limited by their gender, that America has moved a little closer to its ideals of liberty and justice for all."

The Nashua Telegraph also endorsed McCain, as it had in 2000. The Telegraph said it endorsed McCain in the 2000 race because of integrity, leadership, forthrightness and a "refusal to pander to voters by telling them what they wanted to hear."

Yesterday (Friday, January 4) literally hundreds of Barack Obama's supporters showed up to a rally in Portsmouth, NH. That doesn't sound like a big deal, perhaps, but it was only 5 degrees. "We don't need more heat," he said. "We need more light."

New Hampshire is a strong union state. Union endorsements can be shrouded in controversy, mystery, and intrigue, though. The board of the New Hampshire Service Employees International Union in November voted to endorse Obama, maybe, then had another vote, 8-8, which was an Obama-Edwards tie, which was broken when the President of the Union, Mr. Smith (really), voted for Edwards. So they endorsed Edwards. Sort of.

The New Hampshire chapter of the National Education Association endorsed Democrat Clinton and Republican Huckabee. They've never endorsed any Republican before.

"Barack Obama knows what regular people are going through - and he's the candidate I trust to actually bring people together and make real progress on issues like health care and education," said Grace Mattern, executive director of New Hampshire Coalition Against Domestic and Sexual Violence, which has over 1000 members.

The newspaper of Manchester, the Union-Leader, enthusiastically endorsed McCain, and has reported somewhat negatively on Romney. Manchester is a Republican strong-hold inside New Hampshire. The publisher, however, apparently has an open mind. In his opinion column yesterday he starts out with, "THE GOOD NEWS for supporters of Mitt Romney: A man has survived a 47-story fall from a New York skyscraper. So anything is possible."

I don't believe Mitt Romney has any chance of taking New Hampshire. I believe that, on the Republican side, it will be a sweep for McCain with some good second support for Huckabee. Whether that will mean much nationally is still up for grabs. McCain also got the endorsement of the Boston Globe, so no one can accuse him of being too conservative. They may, however, turn that into a he's not conservative enough anti-McCain vote.

On the Democratic side, we have in New Hampshire a state where independents may vote in the Democratic primary and where we have a potentially fascinating Democratic race. My guess is that many of New Hampshire's "undeclared" will choose to vote in the Democratic primary. Since that "undeclared" sector makes up 45% of the electorate that should cause a huge Democratic turn-out.

Barack Obama has earned much support, but New Hampshire-ites in general like to see a longer track record. Hilary is a woman with a long track record, which may work against her, since many New Hampshire-ites believe that the Clintons have already had their 8 years in the White House. Edwards is nice, but nice isn't a strong platform when running for president. Richardson has many fine qualities, but will votes for him just pull from Obama and Edwards, giving Clinton that edge?

One thing is sure. The New Hampshire primaries, even if Iowa's came first, still promise to be the most fun to watch primaries in the nation.