President Ford and the Swine Flu Decision

The question as to whether President Ford made the right decision in regards to the Swine Flu vaccine seems to be very obviously yes in my opinion. This is a classic example in which the phrase "learn from the past" is taken and used to help make decisions in the present. The possible similarity between the Swine Flu of 1976 and the 1918 influenza was never verified, but it was thought by many medical experts to be a serious concern for the citizens in the winter following 1976. Ford was given the ultimate decision, but the more important aspect to this historical situation is the decision making that went on in the weeks prior to that of Ford's decision.

The Swine Flu in 1976 came from one specific location, that being Fort Dix, New Jersey. Here, in February 1976 four recruits were found to have had Swine Flu, one of whom died as a result of it. These four cases were different than the common flu that was going on at the area at that time and were thought by doctors to possibly be strains of influenza similar to those from the 1918 influenza that had gone through an antigenic shift and were now able to pass from human to human. Although this was the only location of Swine Flu in the entire world, it had people like Dr. David Sencer, Director for Disease Control in Atlanta, and Dr. Cooper, HEW assistant secretary for health, very concerned.

These two men, along with others, initiated heavy investigation into the matter and formed special emergency committees in order to determine what type of action should be made. The flu season for that year was over, but what they were worried about he was the possibility of this new Swine Flu turning into a pandemic in similar fashion to that of the 1918 influenza in the following year. Groups of scientific advisors from different agencies began interacting in an attempt to determine the seriousness of the possibility of an outbreak the following year and the steps that could be taken to prevent such an outbreak from happening. Although the possibility of an outbreak that could kill a very large number of people was there, no one had any way of coming up with any probability of this occurring. The lack of probability is one of the key factors when questioning the seriousness of the possible pandemic. Eventually, four possible steps were drawn up, with the most logistical one being a combined effort between the federal government and the private health sector in which the federal government would purchase the vaccine for everyone at a cost of about $135 million, and it would be distributed throughout the country through medical clinics, public and private at no charge to the recipients. This would insure that everyone was able to receive a shot in time for the next flu season.

The main problems with the plan were the following: whether the risk was serious enough for the amount of money to be spent on it, whether there were any severe side effects, a few legal issues, and the question of whether the manufacturing companies could come up with enough vaccines in the time needed. Although there were a number of possible problems with the plan, each one of them was quickly given a logistical answer. It turned out that the manufacturing companies would be able to complete the project in time, and would not be worried about being sued over side effects because the government would take responsibility for that. The known side effects were very minimal, and to make sure no serious ones took place test groups would receive the vaccines before everyone else and would be studied, and along with this a surveillance system would monitor the side effects everywhere once the vaccine was publicly given out. The only main question left was if the entire process was worth the effort, especially the money, involved, or if the risk had been exaggerated. To help answer this question, many scientists from different groups were asked what they thought of taking this form of action and basically all agreed that it made logical sense. Still no one was able to put a probability on the chance a pandemic would strike in the following year, but most everyone felt that as long as there was a chance and that possibility could be prevented, an effort should be made to indeed prevent it.

The decision eventually needed the president's agreement, as it had been agreed upon by the officials of the important medical groups involved in decisions like these. The common feeling was that since the program to vaccinate all of America was very logistically possible, it should take place as any lack of vaccination could possibly risk hundreds of thousands to millions of lives. Ford brought together a panel of independent doctors, many of whom specialized in viruses and vaccines, and asked each of them their opinions. Not one person objected to the proposed plan, and the feeling was basically that vaccinations should be given to everyone, even if no one knows how serious of a threat is there, because even a slight possibility of a pandemic is enough to spend $135 million to save lives. Ford had no choice but to agree to the plan. He didn't agree to it for political reasons, as there was a high chance there would be no pandemic with or without the vaccinations, but rather because not taking action to prevent the possible deaths of millions of people was not an ethical option, especially when everyone was informing him that to agree would be the best decision.