Presidential Aspirations: Predictions of the Republicans Running for President in 2008

It's been a month and I've analyzed the predicted administrations of each possible presidential candidate with the exceptions of long shots Mike Huckabee and Bill Richardson.

Basically, the 8 preceding candidate are the only possible people with shots at the presidency. What follows now is my 2008 predictions. First, I will analyze each month up until next November in three parts: Republicans, Democrats, and The Bush administration. After I predict the outcome of the elections, I will write three more articles.

The first article is going to be the Liberal's ideal administration, followed by the Conservative ideal administration, and finally a bipartisan administration that everyone would vote for.

Without further ado, here are predictions for the Republicans side of the 2008 election process.

September 2007:

Fred Thompson has been pseudo running for president for months now, and he has managed to gain 18 congressional endorsements and destroy John Mccain's chances of becoming president. On September 6^th, Fred Thompson makes his candidacy official. This will have a major effect on the presidential process.

First, Newt Gingrich was planning on running for president and had scheduled an announcement of such on September 30^th. Instead Gingrich will decline a run and endorse Thompson, which he will do expecting to get the Vice Presidential Spot in the administration.

As September fades, you will begin to see a universal move in the polls in the top 4 from Guliani at 30%, Thompson at 20%, Mccain at 17% and Romney at 10% to a more controversial Guliani/Thompson 25% tie, with Romney closing in on 20% and Mccain will be in a tailspin around 10%. At this point, Thompson will have taken Mccain's entire conservative support base and most of the veterans, and Romney/Guliani will have grabbed most of the war supporters. The 10% of Support Mccain has left will start being siphoned off by Mike Huckabee who is having strong showings in straw polls having spent little money

October 2007:

Seeing no possible win on the horizon for himself, Duncan Hunter will probably pull out of the race and show support for Tancredo's ideals but declare Tancredo's campaign dead and endorse Rudy Guliani.

Mike Huckabee will continue his rise from Mediocrity as Mccain flounders into obscurity. Polls towards the end of the month will show Thompson in first place, with Romney closing in on Guliani for second place and Huckabee hovering at around 10% still.

November 2007

With Huckabee, Romney, and Thompson rising, Brownbacks support will shrink to 0% in the polls, but he will stay steadfast until finally withdrawing his candidacy on Thanksgiving. State polls all across the country will start showing a Romney, Thompson, and Guliani all hovering around 24-25%, with Huckabee and Mccain a distant 4^th and 5^th and Ron Paul sitting at 5%

December 2007:

We will start to see a battle between Thompson and Romney that will highlight the following months about who is the better conservative. This will end up being the end of certain campaigns, reinvigorate new campaigns and create partnerships unheard of previously.

The FEC chairman who made a declaration of campaigns being dead if they haven't raised $100 million by the end of the year will declare Huckabee and Paul's campaigns dead, but conspicuously ignore Thompson's campaign which as of that time will have not raised the much money.

January 07:

After milking his candidacy and support as much as possible, Ron Paul will drop out of the race as a Republican, but re-enter a few days later as the Libertarian candidate for president. The Constitution party will also endorse him for president as well as a few other lesser known parties.

January 5^th: Wyoming puts up half its delegates at this primary, and it is expected that Romney will come out on top.

January 14^t: At the Iowa primary, Thompson and Romney will come out a close first and second, with Romney making a speech at the end of the night declaring he represents conservatism and that Thompson is a farse. In a surprise showing, Huckabee will show around 12% at the primary, eclipsing Mccain and coming close to the 15-20% that Guliani will achieve.

January 19^th: Thompson will take the South Carolina primary by storm, winning it by 10%. In a close second place Guliani will have barely eclipsed surprise third placed Mike Huckabee, while the Christians in South Carolina will come out in droves to put the mormon Romney out of his misery, placing him in 5^th place below even John Mccain. On the same day, Romney will win the Nevada primary, but it will have been expected. I should point out that I am separating Republicans from Democrats here because in South Carolina and other states, each party has a separate primary day so this just makes it easier.

January 22^nd: At the New Hampshire primary, Romney will come in 1^st, having been seen as the guy who took on the Massachusetts legislature, but he will be followed closely by Mike Huckabee in 2^nd place. Mccain's last place finish here will prompt a number of defections from the Mccain campaign to the Guliani campaign and rumors of Mccain's imminent depart from the campaign.

January 29^th: At the all important Florida primary, Guliani and Thompson end in a virtual dead heat with Guliani ahead by a few thousand votes. Calls continue for Mccain to withdraw, as he places sixth place in the primary, behind write-in candidate Jeb Bush

Current Primary wins

Guliani: Florida

Thompson: SC and Iowa

Romney: Nevada, New Hampshire, Wyoming

February 07:

February 1^st: Having made a secretive deal with Fred Thompson, Huckabee starts restructuring and much of his campaign staff quits and heads over to Thompson headquarters.

February 2^nd: In the Maine primary, Thompson makes a strong surprise showing, but Romney will appeal to the very conservative rural people and win the primary.

February 5^th: Super Duper Tuesday, with a majority of primaries occurring.

Alabama: Fred Thompson wins, with Guliani in second place, and Mccain placing third.

Alaska: Mike Huckabee will pull off a surprise win as Don Young spends most of 2007 and January campaigning for him. Mccain will come in last.
Arizona: Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson will beat Mccain in his home state, with Mccain maintaining a slight lead over Guliani and Huckabee placing last. Romney wins.

Arkansas: Mike Huckabee wins his home state.

California: Guliani will win, given California's extremely liberal republican party in the North, and its extremely pro-war half in the South.

Colorado: Thompson wins Colorado, and Guliani comes in second with Tancredo and Romney in a tie for third.

Connecticut: Guliani wins, with Romney coming in a close second with the New England state not really supporting anybody else.

Delaware: Guliani wins, as he does with most of the states in the region that surround New York.

Georgia: Thompson beats Romney in a close battle with Guliani registering very little numbers.

Illinois: Thompson and Guliani come out first and second, with Thompson eventually coming out on top due to his conservative roots. Mccain comes in last place.

Minnesota: Guliani wins, as he does in most of the states the democrats will win in November. Thompson and Romney come in a close second and third.

Missouri: Thompson wins, Huckabee comes in second, and Romney/Guliani follow.

New Jersey: Guliani obviously wins

New York: See New Jersey.
North Dakota: As we edge towards Mormon state, we'll see Romney start pulling wins out of his butt and win North Dakota. Thompson comes in second, with Guliani pulling third and Mccain nowhere to be seen.

Oklahoma: Like so many other states, Thompson came out of nowhere to amass a random 17% without even announcing his candidacy. Once he announces, his support will rise and his surge in support will cause him to win the Oklahoma primary.

Tennessee: Romney pulls off a surprise win in Thompson's home state, where Thompson isn't very well liked, but Guliani is seen as too liberal.

Utah: Romney pulls off a win by a large margin in his Mormon homeland.
West Virginia: Thompson is very appealing to this poor state, as he comes across as very confident and charismatic, plus, his movie star appeal will be more than enough for him to gain support.

Super Duper Tuesday Winners
Thompson: (7 states) Alabama, Colorado, Georgia, Illinois, Missouri, West Virginia, Maine

Guliani: (6 states) California, Connecticut, Delaware, Minnesota, New York, New Jersey

Huckabee: (2 states) Alaska, Arkansas

Romney: (4 states) Arizona, North Dakota, Tennessee, Utah

February 7^th: After not coming in the top 5 in any of February 5^th primaries, Sam Brownback's campaign will restructure, fire a lot of its employees and focus on Indiana and Nebraska.

February 9^th: At the Louisiana and Washington primaries, Thompson and Romney fight it out for a close Romney victory in LA, while Guliani takes Washington by a large margin.

February 10^th: Heeding to calls to withdraw, Mccain withdraws from the presidential election after not winning any of the first 28 primaries. All of his support goes to Guliani.

February 12^th: At the District of Columbia, Virginia, and Maryland primaries, everyone is surprised by a Romney trifecta win.

February 19^th: Guliani wins the Wisconsin primary.

February 26thAt the primary in Michigan, Guliani will have a surprise showing given his recent downfall there as Independents and Democrats come out in droves to vote for him. Thompson and Romney will finish at a dead heat for second place, and Mccain will hover around 8 or 9% with Huckabee just beating the margin of error. Rumors will start to persist around Guliani approaching Mitt Romney to be his running mate, which would explain Romney shying away from Guliani bashing.

At the end of February, Sam Brownback will resign and throw his support behind Fred Thompson. Current standings will show

Huckabee with 2 states and 63 electors

Thompson with 9 states and 484 electors

Guliani with 10 states and 649 electors

Romney with 11 primaries (one being Washington DC) and 367 electors)

March 2008:

Mike Huckabee withdraws from the race and throws his support behind Fred Thompson at the beginning of the month.Thompson basically announces that Huckabee is his running mate. This gives Thompson 2 more states and 63 extra electors.

March 2^nd: Hawaii primary goes right to Thompson in the wake of his ticket already being announced giving him a surge in popularity.

March 4^th: Super Tuesday 2:

Massachusetts: Guliani wins, with Thompson surging ahead of Romney to embarrass Romney in his pseudo home state.

Texas, Ohio: Thompson trounces the other two candidates in a surprise showing that brings Newt Gingrich out of the rafters to stump for Thompson.

Vermont, Rhode Island: Most voters stay home due to their disgust at Mccain dropping
out of the race, but the ones who do go out to vote go out to support Romney.

March 11^th: Thompson wins the Mississippi primary as he does in most of the Southern States.

After the March primaries, the White House will come out in support of Fred Thompson who now also has the endorsement of John Mccain. While everything looks to be going in Thompson's favor, rumors continue to persist about Romney dropping out to throw his support behind Guliani in anticipation of a Guliani/Romney ticket.

APRIL 2008:

Thompson with 15 states and 795 electors

Guliani with 11 states and 6492 electors

Romney with 13 primaries (one being Washington DC) and 403 electors.

On April 1^st, Kansas's primary occurs with an immediate win going to Thompson due to his support from Brownback, Mccain, Huckabee, and Hunter and the White House.

April 22^nd has Pennsylvanias primary. Romney wins due to the crazies voting.

May 2008:

At the beginning of May, it will be clear that the nominee is going to be either Rudy Guliani or Fred Thompson, so Romney will drop out of the race leaving 477 electors up for grabs at the August convention.

As far as the May Primaries go,

Thompson will win North Carolina, Wyoming, Nebraska, Idaho, Kentucky, and Montana while Guliani will take Oregon, South Dakota, New Mexico, and Indiana.

June - August: Basically, Thompson and Guliani are going to go around attacking each other leading up to the convention in which no clear winner is in sight. The question of where Romney's support stands will continue to be out there and it will be a hectic summer for the both of them, especially since the Republican party is hugely at risk for a giant failure in the House and Senate. Eventually, Guliani will announce his running mate to be Romney which will be universally panned from both of their supports due to the significant differences between them.

August 2008:
After numerous primaries and a year of solid battling, there is no clear leader to be the Republican Party nominee in the month preceding the Convention.

September 2008:

Republican National Convention Day 1: Speeches by George Pataki, Rick Santorum, George Allen, Chuck Hagel, and Bob Gates

RNC Day 2:Speeches by General Abizaid, Paul Bremer, Joe Lieberman, and John Warner

RNC Day 3: Lamar Alexander, Paul Clements, Tom Coburn, and Condi Rice

RNC Day 4: Keynote address by Mike Huckabee, followed by Romney, Thompson, Guliani speeches and Thompson/Huckabee nomination

After doing the keynote speech at the Republican National Convention on September 1^st, Mike Huckabee will be announced as Thompson's running mate further infuriating Newt Gingrich, Rudy Guliani, and Mitt Romney, but winning the conservative base and keeping his running mate choice relatively scandal free.

November 2008:

I cannot possibly predict who will win the election without doing what I just did for the Democrats as well.

Thompson will probably carry the Southeast, and much of the mid west, but it depends on who he is running again. I do know that

John Mccain will lose his Senate seat to Janet Napolitano, with the media citing his failed presidential campaign as well as his apparent willingness to completely no show a ton of important senate votes.

Tom Tancredo will probably also lose his seat, and Duncan Hunter as well for his role in the US Attorneys scandal.

Romney will end up as Thompson's secretary of Defense, and Guliani as his Attorney General. I'm willing to bet