Presidential Poll: Obama's Lead Still Shrinking

The latest Reuters / C-Span / Zogby Daily tracking poll shows Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama's lead over Republican rival John McCain has shrunk to just 2.7 percentage points. Obama's lead was nearly 4 points just a day prior. According to Zogby, just over 7 percent of likely voters claim to be undecided just 16 days prior to the election.

In the latest daily tracker, Zogby says, "Obama lost five-tenths of a point from yesterday's report, while McCain gained another six-tenths of a point. It was the third consecutive day in which Obama's numbers slipped and McCain's numbers increased."

Of course, one poll does not tell the entire story. The latest Real Clear Politics average shows Obama's lead at 5 percentage points, 48.8 percent to 43.8 percent. Within that average the range runs from a 2 point Obama advantage in the Gallup traditional poll to a 7 point Obama advantage in the Hotline / FD poll. Of the 7 current polls in the Real Clear Politics average, 4 show an Obama lead of less than 5 percentage points.

As far as overall percentages go, Zogby reports that "McCain has once again moved above 45% support overall," and "Obama's slip under 48% support is the first time at that level in nearly a week." Over the course of the Zogby daily tracker, which has been conducted for the past 13 days, Obama's lead has ranged anywhere from a low of 1.9 points to a high of 6.2 points.

Zogby's poll included more than 1,200 likely voters over the period October 16 to October 18. The poll surveyed about 400 people per day and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

One of the more interesting findings of the poll was McCain's advances among independents. According to Zogby, "McCain made a big move Saturday among independent voters" cutting the Obama lead to 8 points from 16 points. When looking at party affiliation, Zogby says McCain has the support of 90 percent of Republicans while Obama has the support of 88 percent of Democrats. So both essentially have their bases locked up.

In the battleground states, Real Clear Politics shows Obama with a 6 point lead in Colorado, 3.2 point leads in Ohio and Florida, a 4.2 point lead in Nevada, a 2.5 point lead in Missouri, a 1.3 point lead in North Carolina, and an 8.1 point lead in Virginia.