Presidential Polling Data for Massachusetts

Massachusetts has long been considered one of the most solidly Democrat-voting states in the nation; perhaps only Washington, DC., can be counted on to show up as blue on every election map as Massachusetts. Massachusetts was the only state to vote McGovern in '72 and has produced many of the most recognizable figures in the modern Democratic party, like Ted Kennedy and John Kerry.

Preliminary polling data over the past few months suggests that this consistency will be reflected in the 2008 presidential election:

A Rasmussen Report poll conducted in the beginning of June of 500 likely voters gives Obama a 51-38 lead over McCain, a double-digit lead that has been growing ever since a February SurveyUSA poll of 544 voters gave Obama a meager 2% lead over McCain. The most recent survey with reliable, statistically controlled results, a June 10th survey from the University of Suffolk, places Obama at a whopping 23% lead in the popular vote over McCain. Independent pollster Nate Silver places Obama's lead around a comfortable 17%, indicating that the presumptive Democratic nominee can tally off Massachusetts as "safely Democratic."

Barring either a Swift Boating or a Macaca, it appears to be a foregone conclusion that Obama will take Massachusetts and its 12 electoral votes this fall. However, there is one confounding factor: though he may not end up dragging Massachusetts across the thin red line, front-running GOP Vice Presidential contender Mitt Romney could pose some unique challenges to the solidly blue state of Massachusetts.

Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, beat McCain in the GOP primary by double-digits this summer. Romney, who proved remarkably resilient to the routine resistance of the solidly Democratic state legislature during his two terms on Beacon Hill, has also shown himself to be a remarkably apt fundraiser. As CQ does rate John Kerry's Senate seat, which is up for reelection this fall, as "safe Democratic," Romney's attention should be turned to invigorating state-level GOP voters. If the Massachusetts GOP wants any chance of cutting in on the action this fall, they will need Romney's presence as a fundraiser and as a rallying flag to bring GOP voters, who have essentially been disenfranchised by the overwhelming Democratic majority for the last 30 years, out of hiding.

If chosen as the VP for the Republicans, Romney will undoubtedly start his fundraising among his most familiar base, which is the Massachusetts GOP voters who made him their governor twice. This could of course constitute nothing but a one-day stop before heading off to Ohio or Pennsylvania to rally the troops, but it could also signal a reinvigoration of Massachusetts' GOP. Consider for example Massachusetts' 5th congressional district, which is only under the reigns of a Democrat by virtue of a 6% win by the Democratic contender in a 2007 special election runoff to replace the resigning Marty Meehan. The intent to break even a single congressional district in the otherwise-solidly blue Massachusetts could set an aggressive tone for the GOP in 2008, which will need to remain on the offensive all year and into 2010 if it hopes to minimize its projected losses in the House this fall.

One additional twist is that former Democratic presidential contender Hillary Clinton, who suspended her campaign hours after Obama secured the necessary delegates to guarantee his nomination. She won the Democratic primary in Massachusetts, but McCain has already signaled his intent to target moderate or conservative Clinton backers, which could potentially sap Obama's strength among certain districts of the Bay State.

Final analysis:
+It is almost certain that Obama will take Massachusetts, barring some political catastrophe unrivaled since... ever.
+The GOP's only hope at breaking the Democratic monopoly on Massachusetts House representation lies both in nomination of Mitt Romney as the Vice President, and in aggressive GOP action in Massachusetts's contested 5th congressional district. MA-5 is the only district in MA where polls indicate even a fighting chance for the GOP.