Presidential Polls in Colorado

Two weeks before Election Day, presidential polls in Colorado show a five-point lead for Barack Obama over John McCain. The difference is substantial, but not insurmountable for the Republican ticket. George W. Bush twice won the nine Colorado electoral votes, and John McCain and Sarah Palin have both campaigned hard in the state in recent weeks.

Further, Colorado has a very small black population, so the Bradley factor will likely play a role. The Bradley theory suggests a certain percentage of voters will say they are voting for the black candidate in polls, but change their mind in the privacy of the polling booth.

The presidential polls in Colorado have led to predictions all over the map. The Guardian suggests McCain has already surrendered the state. In reality, I don't see either side giving up on this potential battleground state before the last ballot is cast on Nov. 4.

National Public Radio today discussed what Colorado Democrats might consider a doomsday scenario. The story outlines a mock court hearing held in Colorado to deal with a fiercely contested election that winds up in the judicial system. Sound familiar? NPR is not the first outlet to suggest Colorado could become this year's Florida - a ridiculed land of hanging chads, all-night hand tallies and righteous indignation over late absentee ballots.

No matter which candidate you support, we can all agree that would not be a desirable scenario. Denver doesn't need another media circus, and America doesn't need another unclear presidential election.

But I digress. Let's get back to those presidential polls in Colorado. Two good sources for aggregate polling data and lists of polls are RealClearPolitics.com and electoral-vote.com.

As the name suggests, RealClearPolitics is like SportsCenter for political junkies. It might be overkill for some, but others could just sit glued to this site nonstop through Nov. 4. Anyway, the site lists five presidential polls in Colorado in the last 10 days. The oldest is a Quinnipiac/Wall Street Journal poll taken Oct. 8 through 12. This poll has Obama up by nine points.

The closest margin is a CNN/Time poll, which has Obama with a four-point lead. The two polls were taken at virtually the same time, showing the fickle and unreliable nature of polling data, especially in Colorado.

The graph on this page shows how close and contested the race has been all year in Colorado, with polling numbers making huge leaps daily. As is the case nationwide, Obama has the momentum behind him in Colorado, but he can't count on the state just yet.

Presidential polls in Colorado don't reflect the unique political makeup of the state. Colorado has a Democratic hotbed in Denver, as evidenced during the Democratic National Convention. Boulder is even further to the left. The town is left of Nancy Pelosi, and I wouldn't be surprised if Nader ends up beating Obama in the Boulder precincts. (True story: during one of the Broncos' 1990s Superbowls, I tried to see an epic movie about the Dalai Lama, but it was sold out. I don't think Boulder is "the real America" Sarah Palin talks about).

At the other extreme, Colorado Springs is home to Focus on the Family, the Air Force Academy and a very strong county Republican Party. The city names highways after Ronald Reagan and is in no danger of turning "blue." Meanwhile, the rest of the state is fiercely independent and can't be neatly drawn into either party. The state is full of environmentalist hunters - voters who will protect their guns while hugging trees. Colorado residents also fiercely protect their privacy.

Presidential polls in Colorado likely don't reflect the number of refusals. They also don't account for the number of jokers who lie to pollsters just to throw them off track.

One thing is for sure. The presidential polls in Colorado are not going to get any more reliable from here. With huge numbers of mail ballots already sealed and early votes already cast, pollsters, pundits and the parties can do little to influence the outcome in Colorado.