Presidential Polls in Florida Are Tight

Tampa, Florida -- With Election Day nearing, the race in Florida is becoming tight. Presidential polls in Florida are now showing Barack Obama and John McCain within only a few points -- or less -- of each other. More interesting, though is that, in the past week, three polls show McCain leading in Florida, while four other polls show Obama is up. Who is really leading in the Sunshine State?

Presidential Polls in Florida

Pollster has broken down the numbers in Florida with results from individual polls. The presidential polls in Florida averages out to give Obama a lead in the state, 48.3 to McCain's 45.2 percent. However, looking at the individual poll results makes it a little more difficult to decide who really is ahead.

Obama and McCain -- Both Leading in Florida?

A St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll from October 20-22 shows Obama leading McCain 49 to 42 percent.

However, a Mason-Dixon poll from October 20-21 shows McCain leading Obama 46 to 45 percent.

A Zogby internet poll put Obama and McCain at 49 and 45 percent, respectively (October 17-20), but Fox/Rasmussen had McCain up over Obama by 1 point (49 vs. 48 percent) on October 19.

Quinnipiac and PPP presidential polls in Florida both have Obama running ahead of McCain. The October 16-20 Quinnipiac poll places Obama at 49 percent, five points higher than McCain's 44 percent. Meanwhile, PPP reports Obama was up by just 1 point (48 vs. 47 percent) during its October 16-19 polling.

Yet, during that same time (October 16), SurveyUSA had McCain ahead of Obama by two, 49 vs. 47 percent.

Who's Up and Why....

So what's going on? What happens during most presidential elections -- the race is tightening up as more Americans decide who they want to vote for, just as the candidates' messages become even further established.

Obama has maintained a strong public platform based primarily on his domestic economic policy. This message apparently resonates with voters, as pollsters noticed a rise in Obama's overall support just after the meltdown on Wall Street late in September.

McCain, however, has hit a new stride the past week. He is evoking "Joe the Plumber" in many of his rally speeches in an effort to connect with middle-income America -- the very voting bloc Obama has found success in attracting.

The Race in Florida

The McCain and Obama campaigns have been making frequent swings through Florida.

McCain made appearances on Oct. 23 in Central Florida. At many of his recent campaign stops, McCain has connected some of Obama's economic policies to those of socialist regimes. However, the McCain campaign has received some strong criticism for evoking the term "socialism" in its response to Obama's economic policies.

Obama held a large rally in Tampa on Oct. 20. Obama states McCain's overall policies would be similar to those of President George W. Bush, but McCain attempted to squelch this notion during the third and final Presidential Debate last week by remarking on his "maverick" stances on some major policy issues, and this may have helped McCain receive a slight lift in some polls.

Central Florida is the home of the famed and politically important "I-4 Corridor," where many Independent and swing voters live.

Barring a significant world event, our nation's economy will remain the top issue for both the voters and the candidates. With Florida suffering a September statewide unemployment rate of 6.6 percent (versus the 6.1 percent national average), McCain and Obama will continue their treks through Florida touting their economic policies -- and attacking each others' -- right up until Election Day.

Resources:

http://www.pollster.com/polls/fl/08-fl-pres-ge-mvo.php

http://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/stories/2008/10/13/daily39.html