Presidential Polls in Georgia: Could Georgia Really Be 'The New Ohio?'

The most current presidential polls in Georgia suggest that John McCain has a fairly strong lead over Barack Obama. But could he lose his lead before November's election?

A month ago, I was helping my friend close his Atlanta restaurant for the night. The young man in the corner, who had been switching between his Blackberry and his laptop for the past hour, and who looked like he'd had a long day, realized the restaurant was closing and packed up. But on his way out, he made a detour toward us.

"Registered to vote for November?" he inquired.

I answered yes; my friend answered no. The young man swiftly pulled out a clipboard filled with voter registration forms and Barack Obama stickers on the back. "Here," he said, and pushed the clipboard toward my friend. "Everyone should register to vote. According to the presidential polls in Georgia, we're 'The New Ohio' this year."

But according to the presidential polls in Georgia by Rasmussen Reports conducted in late August, Georgia still has a ways to go before it is a true "battleground state."

Unsurprisingly to Georgians, McCain predictably leads the presidential polls by seven points, 50% to Obama's 43%. As Rasmussen's presidential polls in Georgia observe, "Bush won Georgia twice by double-digits", and Clinton narrowly won Georgia in '92 but lost in '96 to Dole.

However, Rasmussen goes on to state that only 40% of Georgians think Bush is doing a good job as president today. Perhaps it is this low approval rating that gives the young Obama volunteer hope.

But nearly the whole country agrees that Bush is a bad president; how will that sentiment play out in Georgia? In this heavily Republican state, where only the Atlanta and Athens tend to "vote blue," it is likely that McCain's lead over Obama in the polls will continue to hold strong - especially now that McCain has added the more conservative Sarah Palin to his ballot.

I asked the young Obama volunteer at the restaurant if he honestly thought that Obama had a fighting chance. The history and current presidential polls in Georgia make it seem unlikely.

"It depends on who mobilizes the vote," he answers as my friend hands back his completed form. Looking around the empty restaurant, I find myself wondering where the McCain volunteers are. Maybe they're relaxing back at headquarters... or maybe they're in Ohio.