Presidential Polls: A Look at the Battleground States

I have written before that I don't put a lot of stock in national polls that portend to know what is going on in the presidential race. It is, after all, a state by state contest, and I stand by my lack of faith in national level presidential polling. Still, national polls are an accepted measure for much of the public, and as such deserve at least a quick review before moving on to where the race for president really matters: in a handful of battleground states.

The Real Clear Politics average, which incorporates polling results from a variety of sources, including such notable polling organizations as Rasmussen, Zogby, and Gallup, has Barack Obama's lead over John McCain at 7.4 percentage points. Within the average were results from Rasmussen (Obama +5), Zogby (Obama +6), Hotline (Obama +6), Gallup (Obama +8.5), Battleground (Obama +13), USA Today / Gallup (Obama +5.5), IBD (Obama +2), ABC (Obama +10), Fox News (Obama +7), and Newsweek (Obama +11). These results were from polling conducted from October 6 to October 13.

Now, to where the rubber meets the road - the battleground states.

The latest Real Clear Politics electoral map projection has Obama with 313 projected electoral votes and John McCain with 158 projected electoral votes. Only 67 electoral votes are now projected as toss-ups, meaning McCain will have to turn the tide in some states that are already in the Obama column if he has any hope of winning the White House.

For battleground states, RCP uses its "average" system just as it does for the national level percentages. The following ten states have generally been considered toss-ups, although RCP has moved some of the states out of that category based on recent polling.

In Ohio, RCP says Obama holds a 3.4 percentage point lead over John McCain, making Ohio essentially a "too-close-to-call" state. In Nevada, Obama's lead is 2.9 points, within the margin of error, and in North Carolina Obama's lead is just 1 percentage point.

In Missouri, Obama leads with just a 2.2 percent edge, while McCain holds the advantage in Indiana and West Virginia with 3.8 and 2.2 percent leads, respectively. Obama holds leads of 5.2 and 5.0 points in Colorado and Florida, respectively, and 6.5 and 7.3 points in Virginia and New Mexico, respectively.

The trend lines are still clearly moving in Obama's direction, although three weeks is an eternity in presidential politics. The biggest surprise is that given all his advantages, the war in Iraq, President Bush's popularity, economic crises, an inept McCain campaign, the Palin Troopergate fiasco, an obliging media, and a deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan, Obama has not yet been able to close the door on the McCain candidacy.