Presidential Polls in New Mexico

Presidential polls in New Mexico currently show Barack Obama to have a strong lead over John McCain, jumping significantly in the last few weeks, perhaps due to the excitement of the Democratic National Convention in Denver last week. According to the USA Today presidential poll tracker, Obama held a slim lead from late July to mid-August, with McCain actually taking the lead at one point, then quickly losing it. The most significant gain for Obama in the presidential polls in New Mexico was from a 48% lead on August 20th to a lead of 53% on August 26th.

Though the state voted for George W. Bush in the 2004 presidential election, the polls in New Mexico in 2004 showed a narrow lead, and in fact Bush only won by a tiny margin in New Mexico, according to www.presidentialelectionpolls.com. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr, in a Rolling Stone article, claims there was no Bush lead in New Mexico at all, and that the presidential polls in New Mexico in 2004 actually showed Kerry with the lead.

Mr. Kennedy claims that voting irregularities explain the large discrepancy between the exit poll data and the official vote counts in New Mexico and other swing states.

As a registered Democrat, I for one am happy to see Obama doing so well in the presidential polls in New Mexico. If things keep looking up for the Democratic nominee, it is doubtful even voting fraud will be able to keep him out of the White House. To lose with such a large lead in the polls would indicate that something was not quite right.

It was obvious in the 2006 elections when Democrats were overwhelmingly voted back control of Congress that people in even supposed red states were sick of the Republican administration and the constant barrage it received in the form of scandals centering around corruption, immorality and greed. The Republican party owes a great deal to the conservative Christian base, and the Christian right can easily show its displeasure with its chosen representatives. It is my belief that they did, by not voting Republican in 2006.

Only time will tell whether the presidential polls in New Mexico will prove to accurately represent the thoughts of New Mexico voters. New Mexico is a swing state this year, so each party will be trying hard to sway the five electoral votes the state offers. Voters in New Mexico will be under a lot of pressure this year. Polls cannot really tell us who will be president, but if the polls tell us anything, it is that people's opinions change quickly and constantly, and any presidential hopeful would do well to keep that in mind.