Presidential Polls in Michigan

The State of Michigan, in spite of having gone to the Democrats every year since 1992, has always been competitive in presidential elections. According to the polls, we can expect a tight race once again. Rasmussen has Obama up over McCain 51% to 46%. CNN/TIME has a narrower margin by contrast; 49% to 45%. Regardless, it can be said that the state leans toward Barack Obama. Nonetheless, John McCain does stand a chance within the state and I've been seeing ads from both candidates each and every day.

I do not expect Michigan to be as big of a focus as in 2004, as I believe that recently competitive states like Colorado and Virginia have drawn a lot of the focus away. Michigan, once a stalwart Republican state in the 1800s and early 1900s, has trended more and more Democratic over the past few decades. Currently we have a Democratic Governor, two Democratic US Senators, and a Democratic majority in the State House. Michigan is just one of those states that at this point generally goes Democratic, although the Republicans still have some hope of winning here. Those things being said, John McCain, a moderate, stands a very good chance in Michigan. The key here is appealing to the blue collar working vote, which has been the Democrats' salvation in this culturally conservative state.

I would bet about fifty dollars that Barack Obama will win this state, maybe even more. As I said, it is competitive but Barack is far ahead enough that there is not much McCain can do. In all honesty, I am not a big fan of polls and I believe that Obama is truthfully further ahead of John McCain in the state. I hate to go on conjecture, but I must say that I have collected some of my evidence for a near-certain Obama win from my observations of the "yard sign election." In spite of living in a mildly Democratic state, the particular region I live in is very conservative and very Republican. That being said, I have literally seen more signs for a Democratic candidate with respect to Obama than I have ever seen in the area. With the influx of new arrivals into West Michigan the area has become less and less of a hardcore Republican stronghold than it used to be; I still expect McCain to win my county but not by as much as Republicans have in years past.

In some sense I see myself as being somewhat reflective of the polls. To begin with, I am going to be voting for Libertarian Bob Barr anyway, but if it were between the two major candidates I would probably be undecided at this point. I have my things I like about Obama and McCain, but many more reservations about both; still, I suspect I would lean toward Obama and end up voting for him. I believe that Michiganders, even if they aren't libertarians, are much in the same position (that is, holding reservations but also holding their noses and voting Obama). Michigan tends to be one of those states in which the citizens are rarely satisfied with the two major party candidates, finding them to be too much to one side or the other and not in the middle that Michiganians like. Ideologically, the stereotypical Michigander is an economic populist, slightly left-leaning but more pro-union that a committed bleeding heart, but a mild cultural conservative in contrast. In this state there are indeed many religious conservatives and the power of unions, particularly the United Auto Workers is prevalent. The religious conservatives tend to be behind Republicans while the state Democratic Party and unions are so tied up in one another that at times they seem to be two wings of the same organization.

Ultimately, I believe the success of Obama and other Democrats is that Michiganians tend to vote their wallets over ideology. This is a blue collar state, and even if they aren't keen on the Democrats' social, environmental, and firearms policies the people feel that they are bettering themselves economically by voting Democratic rather than Republican. I believe that one finds that the polls are largely reflective of the attitudes of the general population and somewhat of my own. When all is done and said, I do believe that Obama will win by something like seven points in the state even if the polls show him only about four or five ahead.

SOURCES

"Michigan Election 2008 Polls," Rasmussen

"Obama and McCain Split in Key States", TIME