Presidential Polls in North Carolina

Current election polls in North Carolina indicate likely victory for John McCain come November. However, McCain's lead in most polls is fairly small, indicating a possible upset for his Democratic rival, Barack Obama. This could turn North Carolina into a blue state for the first time since Jimmy Carter in 1976. The John W. Pope Civitas Institutes's poll of 600 registered voters conducted June 11th-13th gives McCain an edge over Obama 45% to 41% with a 4% margin of error.

When Pollster.com compared a series of polls over time, it revealed a disturbing trend for John McCain, as time goes by, his lead continues to shrink. Once leading Obama by nearly 14% in January, McCain now has only a 4% advantage over his rival, a lead that diminishes more when the Libertarian candidate Bob Barr is included in the polling. If this trend continues, Obama has a significant shot at winning North Carolina's 15 electoral votes this November.

This early in the general election season, the candidates attempts at swinging voters towards them is not as obvious as it may be in battleground states like Ohio or Florida. Barack Obama has already made several post-primary visits to the Tar-heel state for rallies and fund raising, no doubt trying to fire up his base voters and attempt to convert the rather large sized undecided population into his camp.

With a fairly sizable African-American population supporting the senator from Illinois in the area of 87%, and several large universities throughout the state that have strong liberal leanings, it would seem that North Carolina is a good spot to attempt an upset over John McCain in the southern bible belt that usually votes strongly Republican. It would seem that Barack is taking advantage of this, and getting settled in North Carolina while John McCain is still focusing on so called "swing-states" like Ohio, and New Mexico. Currently, there are no presidential television ads running in North Carolina, but it would appear that Barack is launching his television campaign in North Carolina within the week.

This election season, while already exciting and filled with drama and upsets, looks to extend into North Carolina, a state which generally votes Republican, as John McCain's support continues to decline as he deals the Bob Barr problem, and an already entrenched grassroots campaign supporting Barack Obama. If McCain doesn't step in soon, it appears that Obama may win in North Carolina stealing away precious electoral votes from John McCain while both seek to win the White House for their respective party's.

Francis De Luca, "N.C. Poll: McCain Leads Obama 45-41", John William Pope Civitas Institute
"2008 General Election: McCain vs Obama," Pollster
Chris Cillizza, "Obama Launches Nationwide Ad Campaign," The Washington Post