Presidential Polls in Ohio
Who Will Be the Champion in This Swing State?
John McCain: 44.60
Barack Obama: 44.00
As you can see, McCain leads by just 0.60.
As you likely know, Ohio is considered to be a swing state. In 2004, Ohio's 20 Electoral College votes were critical to Bush's win. I was not an Ohio resident during that election, but I was frequenting another swing state: Iowa (a state that voted for Gore in 2000, then Bush in 2004).
With the election just two months away, how will the Presidential Polls in Ohio continue to change? If we look at the separate journeys each candidate's numbers have taken and consider the outside factors and events leading to these numbers, which presidential candidate do we think will win the state of Ohio? If our prediction ends up being correct, will it be a good thing?
From June until about July 20, Obama's numbers steadily rose in the Presidential Polls in Ohio. In late July and into August, the numbers started to decline. Is this an indication of the hype wearing off? Are the Democrats upset that Clinton wasn't on the ticket as the VP? Did the McCain camp's negative advertisements affect Obama's campaign? Or, are we just too overwhelmed by the history-in-the-making tickets from both parties to know what the hell we're even voting for?
From April until the end of June, McCain's numbers dropped steadily in the Presidential Polls in Ohio. Since the end of June, his numbers have steadily risen. Have the advertisements been working? Has the monumental decision to have the first woman VP candidate on a major party's ticket captured all the hype and gotten people interested in what the Republicans have to say?
Now that Sarah Palin is McCain's running mate, Obama will call on his strong female supporters to assuage the hype surrounding her (and to keep other women from just voting for the woman that's available to vote for). While I think it is insulting to assume that women cannot see past this, I suppose understand the logic. Will it work?
While I would like to see the state mix it up, there seems to be a trend of Ohio pulling through for the Republican candidate in every election where it came down to such a situation. However, it's certainly not a given for the Republicans, so they shouldn't check it off just yet. It will likely come down to the wire.
Whatever the case, according to RealClearPolitics, "Since 1960, it [Ohio] has voted with the winning party in every cycle. That's 11 in a row." I guess it pays to have Ohio on your side.
This state will be tough for either candidate to win. It may come down to us. How frightening. Stay tuned to the Presidential Polls in Ohio to see what's in store in this great state of swing.
Sources:
Jay Cost, "HorseRaceBlog," RealClearPolitics
"Ohio: McCain vs. Obama" RealClearPolitics
Published by Jill P. Viers
Jill is a technical writer, instructional designer, article writer, and creative writer. Her articles focus on business, education, parenting, cooking, entertaining, politics, and more. She also writes and p... View profile
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20 Comments
Post a CommentYou should check out this article
http://www.avagara.com/e_c/reference/00012001.htm
"Math Against Tyranny"
I actually think that the electorial college helps to make every vote count more than a national popular vote would and it also serves a better purpose, as outlined in the article.
Are you for real? Either you are kidding or really uniformed.
The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant and equal.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote (270 of 538). All the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the candidate with the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 21 legislative chambers (one house in CO, AR, ME, NC, and WA, and two houses in MD, IL, HI, CA, MA, NJ, RI, and VT). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
Ohio polls reflect that as of now the people view the candidates as showing about equal qualifications for the job. if facts change so will the polls.
the electoral college, not thew people, elect the president...
Thanks everyone for sharing your thoughts and experience.
Good article! I watch the polls every now and then and Ohio certainly will have an important role in the election this year.
While I've lived in NC for the past 10 years, I once was an Ohio resident. I can say that Ohio will definitely go for Obama this go around... The Northeast portion from Cleveland, Akron, and Youngstown will vote in droves for Obama, not to mention the very popular Dem governor in Strickland. If Strickland starts to campaign for Obama in October, Obama will definitely win the state.
As for NC, I find it odd that McCain has a 4% lead. While I realize NC hasn't voted for a Republican since 1972 for president, I have yet to see one McCain bumper sticker. It is all Obama here along the coast. Even though the country is as a whole FOR drilling, it's a very popular topic along coastal NC where many rich Republicans with their beach homes are voting for Obama just based on that one issue. They don't want their property values declining or our beaches tainted with oil. I think there will be a HUGE surprise in November. I would not at all be shocked if NC went for Obama. Between the
As the saying goes, don't judge yourself, let others make the assessment.
People of Ohio should ask the rest of the world, the world the U.S.A. "leads", what everyone thinks of McCain and Palin.
While the polls are obviously some indication of what "Might" happen. I find it hard to believe that the Nation would once again lose their collective minds and elect a candidate that will not only resume where the failed Administration of the past eight years left off, but will further the destruction of the American dream. Are the American people like children? Give them something shiny and new and they throw their whole wieght behind it until they realize to late what a mistake they have made. I for one Hope that Obama, and Biden can pull the rabbit out of their hats, if they cannot defeat McCain and Betty Boop er... Sarah Putin er Palin two of the weakest people ever to run a presidential race, wellthen, they do not deserve to win. Not that we as Americans would be better off, no we would suffer terribly. McCain is a bitter tottering old man, Sarah Putin is not qulified to lead lemmings, we should everyone of us wake and smell the coffee this time around it is to important to just
An analysis of tax plans. McCain is lying. Mr. McCain would preserve all of the Bush tax cuts, while Mr. Obama would let them expire for those making more than $250,000 a year. Mr. McCain would also double the child tax exemption to $7,000 and reduce business taxes. Mr. Obama would reduce income taxes and provide credits for people earning less than $250,000 a year. The nonpartisan Tax Policy Center found that Mr. Obama's plan would amount to a tax cut for 81 percent of all households, or 95.5 percent of those with children. The center calculated that by 2012 the Obama plan would let middle-income taxpayers keep about 5 percent more income on average, or nearly $2,200 a year, while Mr. McCain would give them an average 3 percent break, or about $1,400. The richest 1 percent would pay an average $19,000 more in taxes each year under Mr. Obama's plan but see a tax cut of more than $125,000 under Mr. McCain.