Presidential Polls in Virginia

AC Writer
The latest presidential polls in Virginia show a widening lead for Democratic presidential nominee and Illinois Senator Barack Obama. The most recent Real Clear Politics average has Obama ahead of Republican presidential nominee and Arizona Senator John McCain by 6.5 percentage points.

But average poll results don't always paint a complete picture. Here's a look at the presidential polls in Virginia by individual poll result. The Fox News / Rasmussen poll has Obama ahead by 3 points, and the Mason Dixon poll has McCain ahead by 3 points. Those two are essentially a wash, but Real Clear Politics includes several other presidential polls in Virginia when computing its average.

The PPP (D) poll shows Obama ahead by 8 points, while the SurveyUSA and Suffolk polls have Obama ahead of McCain by 10 points and 12 points, respectively. InAdv / Poll Position has Obama ahead by a 6 point margin, and the CNN / Time Magazine poll has Obama ahead by 9 points. But given that Virginia has not gone for a Democrat in a presidential election since voting for Lyndon Johnson in 1964, no one can say for sure that the Commonwealth is in Obama's column. Virginia is expected to be a very competitive race.

As far as my individual voter position is concerned, I fall into the minority in Virginia that supports Senator McCain. But I think Senator Obama is well on his way to winning this key battleground state. Last night offered the perfect example of why. Watching TV yesterday evening, I was subjected to an Obama commercial on every second or third ad to run throughout primetime programming. Obama clearly has a strong ground game in Virginia, with door to door get out the vote drives, incessant phone calls, bombardment with television ads, and yard signs galore. McCain has done a few rallies in Virginia, but even in that category he trails Obama. I'm also not sure how accurate presidential polls in Virginia are. Most of the people I know have never been polled.

Still, I expect Virginia to be very close on election day. Obama has the northern part of the state pretty much wrapped up, but the more rural area traditionally turn out in strong numbers for Republican candidates. There is also a very strong military presence in Virginia, home to the Norfolk Naval Base, the Pentagon, several Army posts, a few Air Force bases, and the Marine Corps base at Quantico. McCain has strong support among military members and their families, and the large military presence could mean a very competitive race that the presidential polls in Virginia do not reflect.

Published by AC Writer

I have very diverse interests and never seem to know what's going to hold my attention at any given time.  View profile

9 Comments

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  • continued ALASKAid10/30/2008

    unthankful.....we have become fat in our prosperity......heres 2 qoute by one of our founding fathers Benjamin Franklin that I think we should all remember........1) Any man who would trade liberty for security deserves neither liberty or security 2)"Sell not virtue to purchase wealth, nor Liberty to purchase power." ......I would not care if I was the poorest man on earth as long as I had my freedoms and I believe without a dobut we will lose many of those if Obama becomes president!

  • ALASKAid10/30/2008

    I guess we will see if we are better off now with a ultra liberal government.....Im just glad that up here in Alaska we are still conservative enough that we dont have to worry about transvestites being brought into elementry schools to teach kids about alternative lifestyles (like in california) or men marrying other men (like in massachusetts).... People in this country dont think that the social issues matter but how can we expect the future generations to make good decisions or ourselves to make good decisions when we dont care about the things that really matter....I have seen in polls that the most important issue to the voters is the economy and that is hard for me to understand....Is money really what is most importants? Or jobs or the stock market? If people care more about personal wellbeing and security than how we live and conduct ourselves as human beings than we know America has a huge problem.....we as a country no longer value what is important and we have become untha

  • Joseph10/23/2008

    I live in Northern Virginia, a State the MSM all but says is out of reach for Republicans and Democrats will win... I AM LAUGHING!!! IT WILL NOT HAPPEN!!! I have never seen as many Republican signs in my deep blue city of Falls Church. Guess what? Many homes (mine included) have McCain/Palin signs right next to their Warner(D) for Senate signs. I AM A DEMOCRAT!!! My brother lives in the Bellwether County of Prince William, 7 out of ten signs in his neighborhood are McCain/Palin, HE IS A DEMOCRAT!!!

    I have been voting since McGovern in this State, I know the Demographic changes and don't need to hear it. My Account Manager, a staunch Democrat from Massachusetts is voting for McCain, sure their are loud Obamabots and sure there have been added Democratic registrations, but enough to reflect a double digit electoral swing in the electorate? Anger at the Republicans?

    I was an angry voter in 2006 against the GOP, this time all anger will not all go to the GOP, much will be a backl

  • Donna10/22/2008

    I am so sick of republicans using scare tactics to win elections. Its like the new thing now, where Biden admitted that Obama will be tested within 6 months of winning the presidency. Is there anyone here that thinks anyone elected president will not be tested? Its such crap, and intended to scare people into voting for the "war machine". You know, if you really wanna play that card, can you imagine Palin having to deal with the test if something (God forbid) happens to McCain? I have heard so many people here in southern Virginia say " I think she is great, she is just like us". Well her being just like us isnt a problem unless you are running for a presidential position. What is wrong with this thinking? We dont need the girl next door in a position of running the most powerful country in the world. Be smart enough to vote for change!. I am not saying the Obama road will be without bumps, but its obvious it will not be the train wreck the past 8 years have been. People are so concer

  • LU10/21/2008

    ARE YOU SERIOUS? IF DEMOCRATES ARE SO GREAT WHY HAVEN'T THEY SOLVED ANYTHING IN THE LAST 2 YEARS SINCE THEY HAVE BEEN IN CONTROLL? OH YES I FORGOT THEY WERE TOO BUSY MAKING THINGS WORSE WITH THE HELP OF A SO CALLED REPUBLICAN PRESIDENT. LET'S SEE WASN'T IT THE DEMS THAT WOULDN'T LISTEN TO THE WARNINGS OF MC CAIN ABOUT FANNY AND FEDDY. WHO WAS LEADING THIS DRUM BEAT TO DISASTER OH YES IT WAS THE SAME DEMS THAT LEAD THIS BAIL OUT WE HAVE NOW. THE ONE THAT IS REWARDING FAILURE WITH OUR MONEY. AND YOU THINK IT IS BETTER TO TRUST THAT PARTY? WAKE UP AND SMELL THE ROSES.

  • dhill10/21/2008

    Are you seriously trying to convince us that our families would be safer with a Republican. Recent history (as in the last 7 years) tells us otherwise. I will take the intelligence and calm of Obama over the mediocre thinking and anger management issue of McCain anyday. I don't worry that my family would suffer some horrible fate if McCain is not elected...just the opposite! Fear mongering seems to be the only thing Republicans are doing well at this year!

  • phillip10/21/2008

    out with the old and in with the new man get real

  • gaetano10/15/2008

    If any body believes in the polls ,this election, then they also believe in the tooth fairy.People in this country are not woried about the economy as much as they are worried about keeping their families alive and safe. You don`t know what bad economy really is unless you`ve been thru the depression like I was.After 75 years of living in our beautiful country and raising a family,who has been kept safe from all other countries,and all forms of government,I would have to say that when it comes to picking one of the idiots that have been placed upon us to choose from ,that i must vote for the one that has experience ,and has the knowledge.I or no one should vote for a person just by what he says and promises.Believe me ,I`ve been there at least15 times. Don`t gamble your families lives on an unknown.

  • PulSamsara10/14/2008

    Why would America REWARD complete Republican failure ?

    We wont.

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