Preview: Juan Diaz vs. Paulie Malignaggi

On August 22nd, HBO's Boxing After Dark program will host a crossroads fight between two of boxing's most exciting and personable characters: Houston's Juan "Baby Bull" Diaz and Brooklyn's Paulie "Magic Man" Malignaggi. The bout marks Diaz's move to the ranks of the 140 pounders, and is an important fight in the future careers of both men. The winner will either be angling for a title fight or a place in the Manny Pacquiao-Floyd Mayweather sweepstakes. The loser will likely be going out into the wilderness for at least a year's worth of small fights and resume-rebuilding.

Juan Diaz 34-2 (17 KOs)
Mexican-American, 25 years old, 5'6", 67" Reach
Former Lightweight Champion

Diaz is an exciting, gutsy puncher with a big popular following in his hometown of Houston. After a solid amateur career, he turned pro while simultaneously putting himself through college. His resume holds wins over Julien Lorcy, Acelino Freitas, Michael Katsidis, and Julio Diaz. Against this are losses to Nate Campbell and Juan Manuel Marquez. He is a strong, determined, pressure fighter with plenty of speed in both hands. If anything can be held against him, it is in his inability to adapt in the ring. A one-trick pony, he had no answers once Campbell and then (even more so) Marquez figured him out and turned the tables on him.

Paulie Malignaggi 26-2 (5 KOs)
American, 28 years old, 5'8.5", 70" reach
Former Super Lightweight Champion

Malignaggi also comes from a solid amateur career. He has two wins of Lovemore N'dou, but was decisioned by Miguel Cotto and stopped by Ricky Hatton. He is a skilled, speedy, slick boxer. His style is to carry his hands low, stay out of trouble with his fleet feet, and to sting aggressive opponents with fast, accurate counterpunches. His major weakness is the lack of oomph in his punching, as indicated by his record of a measly 5 knockouts.

The Prediction
This is a meeting between two good fighters that seem to falter when matched against great fighters. Marquez, Cotto, and Hatton all soundly beat these two guys.

On the surface, the Magic Man should be the favorite for this fight. He is faster than Marquez, and while not as crafty or experienced, Malignaggi should be able to play matador to Diaz's baby bull.

On the other hand, a shopworn Hatton was able to grind Malignaggi up, largely because Malignaggi lacked the power to faze Hatton no matter how many times he hit him. Diaz, as evinced by his thrilling, action-packed performance against Marquez, is a boxer with a full gas tank. Plus, Diaz has beaten more top contenders than Malignaggi has even fought, and his loss to the skilled and capable Campbell was a close one.

Diaz is not a knockout puncher, and I doubt anyone who has been thrashed by Hatton and Cotto will find his punches shocking. However, I bet Malignaggi will find Diaz's quickness to be a surprise. I see Malignaggi cutting Diaz with one of his quick slashing jabs in the 6th. Diaz, at a make or break moment, turns the heat up and busts Malignaggi up in the 7th and 8th. They take the 9th off to rest, but that proves to be the last round Malignaggi wins as Diaz comes out to close the show, sweeping the 10th, 11th, and 12th.

Juan Diaz by Unanimous Decision.

Sources: boxrec.com; live fight footage.