Primary Campaigns Complete First Quarter Fundraising

As the first quarter for fundraising for the presidential primary campaigns closes with the end of the March, we will see the primary races begin to shape up. Although candidates are not required to file reports until April 15, it will be in their best advantage to show strong figures to the public as soon as possible. In a race depending increasingly on the amount of money spent, first quarter figures will be critically important in determining who will get the nomination.

It is already clear that this years numbers will blow records out of the water. The current record for money raised in the first quarter of a primary is $8.9 million, which Al Gore raised in 1999 to beat George W. Bush, who had $7.6. This year's records will likely be three times that.

At the moment, Hillary Clinton leads the democratic candidates by a large margin. Time Magazine estimates that she has $30 million, three times Al Gore's record. Additionally, she can call on the $11 million from her Senate campaign. Barack Obama will likely bring in a very respectable $20 million.

As for the Republicans, John McCain, who thus far has to some degree been playing the role of a background figure, will realistically need to bring in $20 million to pose a serious bid. Giuliani will also need a good deal of money to meet high expectations. If former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who is currently well behind in the polls, wants to make a serious bid, he will have to make quite a lot of money, a task that is quite possible for someone as well-connected as he is.

In addition to making a great enough amount of money, candidates will have to meet expectations of them if they want to stay in the running. Even if a candidate does quite well, it would be a major turn off if they do not meet their goal, discouraging further investment.

Another major criterion to take into consideration when considering a candidate's chances is the nature of their donor base. In addition including a strong representation on the part of moneyed interests, donor bases much be large, and cover multiple segments of society. John Edwards, in his first primary run, would be a textbook case of this fact, at first making $7 million from his attorney friends, but then proceeding to make little more after that. Estimates reveal that it will take around $75 million to run a competitive primary campaign this year.

Sources:
http://www.nytimes.com
http://www.time.com