Probability of Dodging in Blood Bowl

e rolling, it is often the case that one bad roll in Blood Bowl can spell the difference between success and failure.

For that reason, it helps to understand the odds involved. Maximize your odds of success and minimize the times that those "bad" dice rolls come up and ruin your day. Two of the most common things you'll do in the game are blocking (read about the probability of one die blocks or the probability of two die blocks) and dodging. In this article, we'll look briefly at the odds of successfully making a dodge roll under various circumstances.

Simple Dodge - One Roll

Probability doesn't get much simpler than making a single die roll. On a six sided die, you have six possible outcomes. If you need to roll a 6+, you've got one possible success - so the probability is 1 out of 6 (16.67%).

Let's take, as an example, a High Elf Lineman. Agility 4. You need a 2+ to successfully dodge into an open square. With 5 chances of success and 6 possible outcomes, you've got a 5/6 chance of succeeding (83.33%).

Or, the average Human, with an Agility of 3. Now, you need a 3+ to successfully dodge into an open square. That's 4 chances of success with 6 possible outcomes, yielding an overall probability of 4 out of 6 (66.67%).

In the unlikely event that you want to dodge your Black Orc out of a tackle zone, you'll be surprised that it isn't all that bad. Agility 2 means you need a 4+. You've got a 4 out of 6 chance of succeeding - 50%.

More Complex - Adding Re-Rolls

If you take into account the possibility of re-rolling a dodge, it gets a bit more complex (read about the probability of two events occurring). The easy way to think about succeeding with a re-roll is to examine the probability that you will still fail.

In other words, what is the probability that you will fail a dodge roll twice in a row?

Let's consider out Elf Lineman. He has a 1/6 chance of failing - only when you roll a 1. The probability that you will roll two ones in a row is 1/6 * 1/6, or 1/36 (2.77%). That means you've got a 97.2% chance to succeed at dodging an elf into an empty square if you have a re-roll handy.

Next, consider the average Agility 3 player. Instead of a Human Lineman, though, we'll think about an Amazon with Dodge. There's a 2/6 chance that she will fail the first dodge roll. Therefore, there is a 2/6 * 2/6 or 4/36 (11.11%) chance that she will fail both rolls.

While that's not as much a "sure thing" as the elf, those are still some pretty good odds! You're only going to fail a shade over one in ten dodges, assuming you always have a re-roll handy. Notice, also, that your Amazon Linewoman has a better chance of succeeding with a re-roll than the elf does without a re-roll.

To round out the examples, take an Agility 2 Dwarf (Blocker or Troll-Slayer). They would have a 1/2 chance of failing with a single die roll, so there's a 1/2 * 1/2 or 1/4 (25%) chance that they will fail even with a re-roll. That's no "sure thing" to be sure, but the odds are still pretty good that you'll succeed.

Re-Rolls Make Dodging Consistent

Yes, we all hit bad luck streaks. But, in terms of probability, you've got pretty good odds of succeeding on a dodge if you have a re-roll handy. With an average agility 3 player, you've got a great chance of succeeding (88.89%) and even an Agility 2 Dwarf has a decent chance at succeeding (75%).

Maybe you should think a little harder next time about whether or not you want to doge. It might turn out that the odds are better than you thought.