Problems Ahead for the Lakers?

On February 1^st, the Los Angeles Lakers made a stunning trade for Pau Gasol, a twenty-seven year old Spaniard who is widely considered one of the best big men in the league. The trade, naturally, has been universally lauded as it not only gives the Lakers a chance to win the title this season, but also gives them a core of Kobe Bryant, Lamar Odom, Gasol, and Andrew Bynum for the future.

That is, if they can afford to keep the group together. A factor no one is talking about, maybe because it is too soon, is the situation the Lakers will be in two summers from now. Although both Kobe and Pau are locked up until the summer of 2011, the other two expire in the summer of 2009.

Currently, Lakers' payroll is just over seventy-one million dollars, good for eighth-highest in the NBA. But the only reason they are able to boast four high-quality players at that price is because Andrew Bynum, twenty years of age, is still under his rookie contract, a deal which pays him around three million dollars a year.

Bynum, although somewhat of a question mark before this season, had really impressed early-on this year before going down with a knee injury. He averaged a double-double in the thirty-two games he played in. Add in his incredibly young age, and it is not hard to imagine him garnering incredibly high offers when he becomes a restricted free agent in 2009. In fact, it wouldn't surprise many to see him get a maximum contract purely based on his seven-foot frame, as big men often come at a premium in the NBA.

On the other hand, Odom is a proven commodity who is easily the best third-option in the NBA right now. Keeping him is as vital as keeping Bynum when thinking about short-term success exclusively. But Lamar's price tag is also high. Put both Bynum and Odom together, and it is easy to see the Lakers paying a combined price tag of thirty million per season.

Unfortunately, that means, when taking all the other signings the team will have to make to keep a fifteen-man roster, that Los Angeles will be spending near one-hundred million dollars, if not more, on their roster alone after the 2008-09 season. Will the team commit such an extraordinary amount of capital to keeping their core together? Or will they sign one, most likely Bynum, and try to replace the other with a cheaper alternative?

It's possible. Mark Cuban and the Dallas Mavericks have proven that a strong desire to win can occasionally outweigh the financial aspects of basketball. But the additional twenty-five to thirty million dollars per season spent on talent will come directly out of profits A move which, if all things remove the same, could drop the Lakers from the fifth-best earning team to as low as eighteenth-best (using a recent Forbes survey.)

Of course, it is quite possible that additional revenue from long playoff runs and increased merchandising could offset the costs of paying both Bynum and Odom. But these are factors which cannot be easily calculated and are anything but certain.

For years, we have heard multiple NBA representatives preach how the game is a business first, one whose main purpose is to make as much money as possible. The Lakers may just get a chance to test out that theory. Will they choose to make a business decision or a basketball decision in the summer of 2009? We'll just have to wait and see.