Professional Gambling 101 - How to Win

As a (retired) pro gambler, I've come across a number of interesting systems that are designed to help would-be high rollers turn the tables on the casinos. Here, I will detail for you the best of the best. By that, I mean that there is one, and only one, best system of all.

Every casino game depends on raw mathematical probability. Craps is literally a roll of the dice. Roulette is a spin of the wheel. Even poker is a game based on randomness that could come out any way at any time, regardless of the skill of the player.

The sole exception to this unyielding rule of random probability is Black Jack. Unlike every other game, the cards that land on the table now depend on the cards that have gone before: there is only one Queen of Hearts in a deck, and once she's gone, she's gone.

It is because of the random nature of these games that progressive systems don't work. Certainly, luck is always a factor in random gambling, but luck can run either way. You might win a lot, but you might lose a lot too.

Progressive systems depend on the concept of cumulative probability. Consider: what are the odds that any given coin toss will come up heads? 50/50 (better odds than being on the player side of any casino game). What about twice in a row? 25%

The idea with a progressive system is that eventually that coin has to come up tails. You start with the minimum bet, and, if you win, great. If you lose, you double your bet. Eventually, you will win - right? Wrong.

No matter how long a string of probability you put together, there is always a chance that that coin will come up heads every single time. It may be slim, but it is always there.

Suppose you're playing Craps; betting on the Field at a $5 table with a $500 maximum bet. For easy math, we'll just say that you've got a straight 50/50 shot of winning every roll. We'll even be generous, and say that your progressive system will work 99 times out of 100. If that's the case, you'll win that $5 99 times, for a payout of $495, but you'll lose once - a staggering $635 in total when you run into the table's max bet limit.

Now, it is true that there are other factors in play. You have a 1 in 18 shot of hitting a 'double' payout on a high-bet roll, for example. However, when I said we're being generous with our scenario, I meant it. The best cumulative probability system in the world only pays out 85% of the time. In short, systems like this only work passably well if 1) you are playing at a table with no maximum bet (good luck finding one), AND 2) you have an infinite amount of money to bet. Unless you can meet both of those requirements, you will lose money over the long term. And that's without mentioning the absurdity of risking hundreds, or even thousands, of dollars of your own money just to get a lousy $5 from the casino.

What's more: the dice don't remember what they rolled last. They can, and will, come up nothing but 7's all day long (or some other unhelpful number, depending on where your bet is). There is no cumulative probability. You might only have a 1% shot of losing any given series, but, over the long term, the Law of Averages will bite you. And when it does, it will hurt.

Lacking one of those no-limit tables, the next best thing is to use your head, not your wallet, as a lever to get the money out of the casino. You might have noticed that the Black Jack dealer never guesses, or goes with his/her 'gut' - dealers have very specific procedural rules that they have to follow; they always hit on 16, for example. There is a reason for that, and it is, as you might expect, based entirely on probability.

If you, as a player, follow exactly the same protocols as the dealer, you will have an overall probability of winning any given hand of roughly 49.5%. These are far and away the closest to "even" odds you'll get in any casino. And no, getting Black Jack will not be enough to overcome that half-percent gap.

But there is a better way.

Years ago, a professor at MIT ran all the numbers, and he came up with a set of protocols called "Basic Strategy". These rules modify the dealer's rules by taking advantage of player knowledge. The dealer has to hit or stay depending exclusively on what he or she has. The player, however, gets a bit of inside info in the form of seeing one of the dealer's cards.

Say, for example, that you have 16, and the dealer is showing a 5. Now, if you're playing by the dealer's rules, you should hit. But, if you're using Basic Strategy, you realize that the dealer has to hit, and has pretty decent odds of busting. Rather than risk a bust yourself, you bet that the dealer will bust instead.

You see, that slight edge the house has comes from this one basic truth - if you bust first, it does not matter if the dealer does or not: you still lose.

There is an ongoing debate as to whether utilizing Basic Strategy actually nets the player an advantage over the house or not. However, unquestionably, the math is indisputable: Basic Strategy is the most effective set of protocols possible for guiding a player in any given hand.

Basic Strategy's biggest drawback is that it does not exploit the fact that Black Jack is a game with a unique weakness: it is a game that "remembers" its history. But, unless a person is somehow capable of keeping track of all the cards in a six (or more) deck shoe, a minimum of 312 cards, then that is the best a player is going to get, at the most favorable game there is.

I'll teach you how to do just that later on. For now, though, here is run down on that mathematically optimized set of guidelines, Basic Strategy.

Visual aid charts for Basic Strategy can be found all over the Internet. A Google image search for "Basic Strategy Chart", for example, will yield dozens, if not hundreds, of hits.

In hyper-condensed summary, though, Basic Strategy can be summed up thusly:

* If the dealer is showing a 6 or less, hit to (and stand on) 12 or Ace/7. If the dealer is showing 7 or more, hit to (and stand on) 17 or Ace/7.

* Always split Ace's and 8's, never split 4's, 5's, or 10's. If the dealer is showing 9 or less, split 9's. If it's 6 or less, split everything except 4's, 5's, or 10's.

* Always double down on 10 or 11 totals, unless the dealer is showing an Ace (never double on a dealer Ace). If the dealer has 6 or less, double down on a 9 total also.

There are several other specifics that complete the strategy, and I highly recommend you learn to recite them in your sleep if you want to play professionally. This description is a rough outline only, but is a good starting place to get you going.

Once you learn to play the complete Basic Strategy without even having to think about what move to make, then - and only then - will you be ready to learn to count cards. When that time comes, seek out this article's follow-up: "Professional Gambling 201".

Until then, good gaming!