Project Runway: Handicapping the Finale

What isn't good television is Bravo's mismanagement of the show in terms of scheduling and revealing plot details. First, there was an inexplicable gap between the airing of episodes ten and eleven. During the two-week hole, the network fall television lineup premiered and stole a lot of thunder that could be going towards Project Runway in the media. Second, the timing of the Bryant Park fashion show and the release of pictures from it gave away a key twist from the episode, namely that Uli would somehow steal Michael's prized model Nazri. Furthermore, their promos for the show advertised that "we are not committed to a final three," and sure enough, they went with a final four. Why Bravo decided to wait two weeks only to have intervening events cut all the drama from the episode I have no idea.

Worse, their timing not only missed the boat on incorporating the drama of Fashion Week fully, but their planning essentially means that from episode ten until episode fourteen, there are no major changes in personnel. The final four will have been known and set for weeks, and by the time the finale airs on October 18th, the pictures from the Bryant Park show will have been available online for over a month. Why the producers insist on wasting opportunities for drama while pushing their show into the cacophony known as early fall television is well beyond me. Frankly, I'm worried that casual viewers will forget about the show or become bored with the over-saturation of reruns.

However, there will always be the question of who wins the darned thing, and right now, it's a tough call. Briefly, I will handicap the final four's chances of winning the grand prize:

Michael Knight - The 28-year-old designer from Atlanta seems to be the clear favorite. His laid-back, no-attitude demeanor in the workroom found him a broad following of fans, including most of the rejected contestants, who have said almost unanimously that they wish him to emerge victorious. His raw skills also seem unrivaled, and he had the best performance over the course of the show, winning two and a half challenges and coming close in another four. However, he bombed the last challenge in the eyes of the judges, and his performance in the couture challenge showed some of his major weaknesses. He should win easily if he realizes what his actual strengths are. ODDS: 1-1.

Laura Bennett - In contrast to the other three, Laura is the personification of conservative design choices. A 42-year old architect and mother of five (or six), Laura routinely designs clothes for herself in fairly-classical style with impeccable sewing. Though a bold straightalker and, apparently, a burgeoning gay icon, Laura's designs rarely push any kind of edge or are that unique, and I really doubt she can be a great designer. Simply put, she'll win if everyone else fails and does something over-the-top. She said in the final episode that she wasn't taking any risks and was going to design what she knows best, and that pretty much sums her chances of winning. ODDS: 4-1.

Jeffrey Sebelia - Jeffrey is the wild card of the bunch. While young, brash, and rock-and-roll in style Jeffrey came seemingly out of nowhere in the last episode to reveal his romantic side in a challenge where the designers were asked to show something that defines them. I understand this to an extent, since the judges basically asked the contestants to design something completely different while also summing up who they are (as if the previous ten weeks hadn't been enough to see that). Perhaps it was the fundamentally-bad challenge, but Jeff still is the high/low, do-or-die player in the bunch. Out of eleven episodes, Jeffrey won two and came very close another two times, but finished in the bottom two four times. Given that history, he'll either knock out at fashion week or be knocked out for ridiculousness. ODDS: 4-1.

Note: On September 25, a story broke that Laura accused Jeffrey of a rules violation. She contended that he outsourced some of his sewing for the Bryant Park show in order to finish on time. That is considered a major breach of their contracts and show liaison Tim Gunn did confirm that Jeffrey had been under investigation, though he did not reveal the results. The bottom line is that while I do not recommend actually betting on reality television, I especially do not recommend betting on Jeffrey as he is under investigation.

Uli Herzner - The 35-year old German transplant and Miami resident is the long shot. Though she did quite well in the last challenge adapting to the circumstances as well as showing a sense of humor unseen in earlier episodes, she seems to have limited design capabilities. Though she won two challenges and finished well in three others, she has only once used something other than a print fabric and her only specialty seems to be beach or party dresses. Unfortunately for her, those aren't the biggest markets and her one trick (using prints) happens to be something that easily falls onto worst-dressed lists. Does she have the diversity to beat the other three if she has to make twelve garments? Probably not. ODDS: 9-1.

The finale of Project Runway airs October 18th at 10:00/9:00. As they say on Bravo, everyone's on pins and needles waiting for it.