Provoking North Korea

Despite Bush cabal claims of "coincidence", N. Korea's latest step of initiating a nuclear test could have come as a result of the United States Treasury Department labeling N. Korea a "criminal state" and cutting off its access to the international banking system, only four days after N. Korea signed a denuclearization agreement with the U.S., China, Russia, Japan and South Korea, in which the U.S. and North Korea agreed to "respect each other's sovereignty, exist peacefully together and take steps to normalize their relations."

On October 10th, Condoleezza Rice appeared on the Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer to address the N. Korean nuclear test. During this interview, Rice pretty much blamed Bill Clinton for allowing for N. Korea's recent test and their development of nuclear weapons in general, and heralded the Bush cabals lack of direct talks with the highly isolated N. Korea. Now, while it may or may not be true that N. Korea was secretly undertaking a nuclear weapons program since signing on to the various agreements made in 1995, which prescribed IAEA inspections and the cessation of weapons development in exchange for international aid and heavy oil shipments, it is completely inappropriate for Rice to try to absolve the Bush cabal of its mishandling of the N. Korea situation.

In fact, the MAJORITY of blame should be assumed by the Bush due to his administrations lack of true diplomacy. This, of course, is a signature trait of these folks as they have replaced the time honored tradition of direct communication as a tool in resolving such crises, with saber rattling and "multilateral" negotiations, led by other major powers and in which the US barely participates. They also engage in counterproductive ultimatums, such as refusing to speak with North Korea or Iran until they cease uranium enrichment, even though these are the very issues in dispute. What sort of progress can be made through negotiation if party A refuses to speak to party B until party B first capitulates to the demands of party A? Of course, hardly any progress can come from this sort of negotiation, or lack thereof.

So, once again, we find ourselves in a precarious situation, not so much because N. Korea is determined or able to launch a nuclear attack on the U.S. or its allies, or even to sell its nukes, but because we have a presidential administration that is actively choosing confrontation. It is a fact that George W. Bush declared to the world that North Korea and Iran were members of the "axis of evil" in January 2002. It is also a fact that a few months later, North Korea announced it had started enriching uranium, and shortly thereafter withdrew from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, expelled inspectors, shut down surveillance devices and restarts its Yongbyon reactor. Also a fact is that Bush refused Colin Powell's desire to engage in efforts to resolve these North Korean breaches of the existing agreements, resorting instead to name calling and still more saber rattling. Now the latest provocation comes in the form of aTreasury Department declaration stating that N. Korea a "criminal state" only four days after both countries signed a treaty designed to lessen conflict. Could it be that all of these are just a series of coincidences?

Well, the Bush cabal wants us to believe that N. Korea had been secretly violating the 1995 agreements ever since their inception, even though there is no evidence to support this, and that N. Korea is the aggressor. What result do the Bushies expect when they label a country a member of an "axis of evil", then proceed to openly make plans to invade another member of this "axis of evil" (Iraq), and then to actually invade that other "evil" country? What do they expect when they begin to expand US nuclear capabilities, rather than taking the initiative to lessen nukes throughout the world? Further still, what do they expect when there is a very real possibility that Iran (yet another member of the "axis of evil) may be bombed or invaded? What still do they expect when they violate an agreement to "normalize relations"? Any rational person must expect that N. Korea will prepare to defend itself, or at the very least, attempt to garner more negotiating power, which wielding nuclear weapons would clearly achieve.

Since I do not believe that the Bush cabal is simply incompetent, I therefore do not believe that they are too stupid to understand such basic reasoning. In reality, what they want is to reorder the world such that the United States does not have to negotiate with anyone ever; a world in which they can issue ultimatums backed only by the threat of force; a world in which Americans come to accept this strategy as a noble one, for which they will be willing to offer their sons and daughters as cannon fodder; a world where there is no good will among nations, enemy or ally, and in which the world must choose between American hegemony or all out military conflict.

The danger with this sort of maniacal foreign policy in this case, is that it further destabilizes an already unstable situation. North Korea, while currently unwilling to launch an attack on the U.S., nuclear or otherwise, will become increasingly dangerous the more it is cornered by the Bush cabal. Similarly, allowing N. Korea to pursue nuclear weapons without engaging in direct talks will increase N. Korea's willingness to sell its nukes or technology to other, possibly terrorist, entities. As will overly harsh economic sanctions, which will send the already isolated country further into isolation, punish an already impoverished populace and strengthen Kim Jong Il's hold over the N. Korean people.

The bottom line is that conflict with N. Korea should be avoided at all costs by the United States, and has been for decades, because open conflict in that region of the world would be a disaster of epic proportions, resulting in massive casulties before the U.S. war machine dessimates Pyonyang. The city of Seoul is well within artillery range of N. Korea, as are hundreds of American military installations. Japan is also well within striking distance. While it is unlikely N. Korea would ever launch an attack into South Korea or Japan, as it would undoubtedly result in its demise, it is nonetheless dangerous to provoke and further isolate North Korea and its million man army.

The truth is that until the Bush saber rattling, North and South Korea were making significant progress toward the possible reunification of the two nations, and despite criticisms that both North and South Korea are both using the process for political gain, the "Sunshine Policy" as it is known, at the very least opened up a greater dialogue between the two Koreas, which can only be a positive development. I recall discussing North Korea with a young South Korean "Katusa" soldier, as well as others, and they refer to themselves and those in the North as the "same". They are in fact the "same" people, unfortunately caught up in a lingering cold war relic, which will only be worsened unless the Bush administration ceases its provocations of the N. Korean regime and moves toward a truly useful policy of diplomacy.