Punt or Go? the Nebraska Vs. Virginia Tech Saga

Should Bo Pelini have gone for it on 4^th and 2 with 1:44 left in the 4^th quarter of the Virginia Tech game? It was a tough decision for Coach Pelini and the Huskers...they were one play away from a victory against the Hokies.

Coach Pelini decided to punt from Virginia Tech's 37 yard line...and the rest, as they say, is history.

Dozens of angry call in shows and hundreds of snaps later, I'm here to say not only did Coach Pelini make the safe decision; statistically he made the RIGHT decision!

I found an awesome Win Prob Calculator on www.advancednflstats.com. And I decided to take some liberties in calculating Bo's decision to punt against Va Tech. The liberties I took were that this WP Calculator, designed specifically for the NFL, correlates to NCAA football probabilities in a similar manner.

If you are like the Advanced NFL Stats guy and you feel Nebraska had a 60% chance of converting on 4th and 2 from Virginia Tech's 37 (My seats were right along the line, trust me it was closer to 2 yards than 1 yard); then you store that Winning Probability (WP) of .60. Next, go to the Win Prob Calculator and put a -5 score difference in the calculator with 1:44 to play in the 4th quarter from own 37, 1st Down and 10 To Go...the calculator shows Opponent's WP is .260 in that situation....thus:

(.60 * 1) + (.40 * (1-.26)) = .896 WP for Nebraska

Or if you're like my buddy Drew and you believe the Huskers actually only had a 50% chance of converting in that situation, then:

(.50 * 1) + (.40 * (1- .26)) = .796 WP for Nebraska

BUT EITHER WAY, Nebraska punted to the Hokies' 12 yard line. The Win Prob Calculator says if you're down 5 with 1:44 left in the 4th with 1st and 10 from your own 12 yard line, you only have a .080 WP.

Thus, punting to the 12 yard line gave Nebraska a .920 WP and, statistically, Bo Pelini and the coaches made the highest probable statistical choice to win the game.

One could argue the coaches didn't know the punt would be to the 12 yard line. So assuming worst case scenario, Alex Henery punts a touchback, the WP is still .860 in that situation!

Thus, statistics are once again NOT in a vacuum. The coaches, Bo Pelini, and everyone else who said we should have punted in that situation....were correct.

Justice For All!

Except that Virginia Tech went 88 yards in a minute and twenty one seconds to win the game.

But all second guessing and 20/20 vision rhetoric aside, Coach Pelini made the right move. I just hope he has the courage to make the same correct decision in future games!

Sources:
www.advancednflstats.com
www.huskers.com