Raising the Stakes in the South China Sea

There has been a lot of recent activity in the South China Sea between the United States and China. Most recently, it was the USNS Impeccable, a naval vessel operating in international waters, which was challenged by several Chinese-flagged ships. At least two of the ships issuing challenge to the USNS Impeccable were trawlers, and were not military vessels. Political tension between the two nations has increased a great deal as a result. Secretary of State Clinton held meetings with the Chinese most of the weekend, with no clear resolution of the incident.

The United States Navy has issued a report stating that there has been increased activity in the international waters of the South China Sea due to the operations of the Chinese Navy in the same area. The Chinese report that they have an exclusive economic zone in the area, and were defending their interests.

The Chinese have used military posturing in the area around Hainan Island before. The most recent international incident also has not had the publicity or political fallout for either country's leadership, as well. In politics, pressure is the result of publicity. This maxim was proven true on April 1, 2001 when a Chinese fighter jet collided with a Navy EP-3, resulting in an emergency landing on Hainan Island for the American Plane, and the loss of the Chinese fighter jet, with its pilot. The Chinese fighter jet was so close to the American plane that one of the American plane's four propellers cut the fighter into two pieces just behind the pilot's chair. The EP-3, loaded with 26 Americans and a lot of classified electronic sensors, limped into Hainan Island, which is Chinese territory.

To wrap this up, the Chinese held the aircrew for 13 days and the plane for several more months. LT Osborne received a medal for his flying, the aircrew aboard all received Air Medals. Because of the very public nature of the collision, the political fallout was intense, and the Chinese demanded apology after apology from President Bush. For Bush, the returning aircrew was a triumph. The Chinese never got a direct apology, but did get condolences for the loss of the pilot.

So why the new pressure in the South China Sea right now? Several factors are the same: there is a new president. Both Bush and Obama were within the first four months of their Presidency. Both were uncertain in their political power: Bush because of an extremely close election, and Obama because of a distressed economy. Both had also decided to continue a dual policy towards China: befriend China economically, but beware of China militarily. Added to the mix was the Bush Administration's inheritance of the USS Cole bombing, from December 2000, and the current ongoing conflict in Iraq for President Obama.

With these facts in mind, a new picture is clear: the Chinese are playing a game they play when they get a familiar feeling about the United States. The Chinese sense in our government now, the same thing they sensed in 2001: weakness.

So, a new administration is in Washington, D.C. and in the South China Sea, the Chinese are doing what every non-democratic power does when America changes its leadership every four to eight years: They're testing the waters.