Rasmussen: Iraq Will Be a Success

According to a new Rasmussen report issued September 30, a plurality of poll respondents said the war in Iraq would in the long-term be considered a success. This was the first time for such a result since Rasmussen began tracking the topic.

The Rasmussen poll took the form of a nationwide telephone survey conducted September 29. The results of the survey revealed that 41 percent of respondents "...said history will rate the war in Iraq a success...." A slightly lower number, 39 percent, responded that the Iraq war would be judged by history to be a failure. One-fifth of respondents were undecided.

The results of this latest survey differed sharply from polling last August. At that time, nearly 60 percent of respondents said the Iraq war would be judged a failure while less than 30 percent thought it would be considered a success. Rasmussen also reported that 48 percent of respondents "...also believe the situation in Iraq will get better in the next six months...," compared to less than a quarter of respondents who think the situation in Iraq will deteriorate. Nearly a quarter of respondents said they expected the current situation in Iraq to remain roughly unchanged over the next six months.

Expanding the questioning further, Rasmussen found that more than half of respondents, 55 percent, "...now believe the United States and its allies are winning the war on terror." Less than one quarter, 21 percent, responded that the terrorists were winning. Another 18 percent said "...it's a draw."

The results of the survey reflect security improvements in Iraq that have largely been credited to President Bush's surge of American troops to Baghdad and Anbar Province, the Sunni Awakening, and the decision by Iraqi cleric Moqtada al-Sadr to stand down his Mahdi Army militia. The latest quarterly report on Iraq released September 30 by the Department of Defense says violence is down dramatically and that incidences of attack are at their lowest level since early in 2004.

Nearly half of the respondents to the survey, 46 percent, said the United States was safer today than it was on September 11, 2001. Just over one-third, 34 percent, said the U.S. was less safe.

When accounting for party affiliation, Rasmussen reports that nearly 75 percent of Republicans say the Iraq war will be judged a success, but a mere 16 percent of Democrats agree with that assessment. Similarly, 76 percent of Republicans said Iraq would continue to improve, while only 23 percent of Democrats would say the same.